The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-10-31 04:32 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates → Commodity 2.4σ alert p=60%Interest Rates ^VIX 2.4σ alert p=72%Financial XLE 2.4σ alert p=65%Commodity USO 1.8σ watchCurrencyCrypto BTC-USD 2.4σ alert p=64%Rates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial→SPY is expected to remain neutral over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗UUP is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.04 — BTC-USD is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Interest Rates signal 2.4σ alert p=72% · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Financial signal 2.4σ alert p=65% · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Crypto signal 2.4σ alert p=64% · DS 78% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.8σ watch · DS 66% CT 53%
  • Interest Rates → Commodity chord 2.4σ alert p=60% · DS 79% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
Silver -2.15σ & REMX -2.04σ alerts down; metals weak
Energies→
Uranium -1.70σ watch down; crude stable
Ags↘
Wheat -2.15σ alert down, soy -1.98σ; ag weak
Softs↗
Sugar +1.75σ watch up; coffee steady

Commodity Currencies

AUD↗
AUD z30=+0.41 strengthening vs USD
CAD↗
CAD z30=+0.87 strengthening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no data; neutral vs USD
BRL↗
BRL z30=+0.54 strengthening vs USD

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
ZW=F commodity $599.00 $599.00 -2.15σ 60d alert SHORT
SI=F * commodity $53.46 $53.46 -2.15σ 60d alert SHORT
REMX commodity $54.35 $54.35 -2.04σ 252d alert SHORT
ZS=F commodity $1,224.50 $1,224.50 -1.98σ 30d watch SHORT
SB=F commodity $19.34 $19.34 +1.75σ 252d watch LONG
URA commodity $36.55 $36.55 -1.70σ 252d watch SHORT
ALB commodity $96.96 $96.96 -1.66σ 252d watch SHORT
PDBC commodity $20.14 $20.14 +1.61σ 252d watch LONG
GC=F commodity $4,051.60 $4,051.60 -1.57σ 60d watch SHORT

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Diplomatic progress on indirect Iran nuclear talks and Ukraine winter-truce discussions continues to cap transmission into oil, natgas and safe-haven FX channels; absent orthogonal confirmation from physical flows or vol surfaces, the 20-session outlook remains stable with no VIX>30 or >15% CL shock expected.

Middle East medium

Indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations advance toward sanctions relief

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 35d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine winter truce talks gain traction under economic pressure

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 50d
East Asia medium

Routine Taiwan Strait patrols occur without incursion after US-China summit

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 20d
Top tail risk low high

Abrupt collapse of Ukraine talks triggers renewed Russian energy supply restrictions

Invalidate if: Mediators report continued progress and European natgas storage builds without futures backwardation

Hotspot calibration: 371/488 hits (76%), Brier 0.225 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-10-31

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -1.00
7d net (n=7): $-3.51B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) +1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=+1.90
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +0.99
real_yield_10y: latest=2.63, z=-1.49
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-10-31

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.91 | 3m -1.58 | 12m -0.01
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.8% | 3m 20.1% | 12m 30.0%
Drawdown
Current -45.2% | Max -48.1%
ENB
6.55 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.91 | 3m -1.58 | 12m -0.23
Rolling Volatility
1m 17.8% | 3m 20.1% | 12m 30.6%
Drawdown
Current -45.2% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (261d)176/38845% [40%-50%]+47.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/633% [10%-70%]-16.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.40 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-28

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (269d)369/69753% [49%-57%]+38.7%Longs only
Recent (8d)10/2442% [24%-61%]-5.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.45 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (5 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (55d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (269d)546/108750% [47%-53%]+41.7%Longs only
Recent (8d)12/3040% [25%-58%]-8.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.43 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.