The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-11-01 04:33 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Financial → Commodity 2.5σ alert p=52%Interest Rates ^VIX 2.4σ alert p=67%Financial XLE 2.5σ alert p=58%Commodity CL=F 1.7σ watchCurrencyCrypto BTC-USD 2.0σ alert p=62%Rates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial→SPY is likely to trade neutral over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗UUP is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.26 — BTC-USD is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.5σ alert p=58% · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Interest Rates signal 2.4σ alert p=67% · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Crypto signal 2.0σ alert p=62% · DS 71% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.7σ watch · DS 63% CT 53%
  • Financial → Commodity chord 2.5σ alert p=52% · DS 79% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
Silver -2.74σ/60d down alert, gold -2.47σ
Energies→
Uranium -2.10σ down alert vs crude +1.65σ up
Ags↘
Wheat -1.93σ/60d, soy -1.70σ down watch
Softs↗
Sugar +1.72σ/252d up at watch

Commodity Currencies

AUD↗
z30=+0.46 strengthening vs USD
CAD↗
z30=+1.52 strongly strengthening
NZD→
No data available
BRL↘
z30=-2.03 weakening vs USD

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SI=F commodity $49.10 $49.10 -2.74σ 60d alert SHORT
GC=F commodity $3,898.90 $3,898.90 -2.47σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX * commodity $49.99 $49.99 -2.27σ 252d alert SHORT
URA * commodity $33.73 $33.73 -2.10σ 252d alert SHORT
ZW=F commodity $603.50 $603.50 -1.93σ 60d watch SHORT
ALB commodity $91.00 $91.00 -1.80σ 252d watch SHORT
SB=F * commodity $19.36 $19.36 +1.72σ 252d watch LONG
ZS=F * commodity $1,222.25 $1,222.25 -1.70σ 30d watch SHORT
CL=F * commodity $104.12 $104.12 +1.65σ 30d watch LONG
PDBC commodity $20.02 $20.02 +1.51σ 252d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.37 stable

Geopolitical transmission remains low across oil, natgas and risk-assets channels as diplomatic signaling and actor reflexivity favor contained equilibria over shocks; orthogonal tape confirmation is absent and second-order cascades point to de-escalation within the 20-session window.

Middle East medium

Iran nuclear talks resumption with proxy restraint

oilfx
CL=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 22d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire framework negotiations

natgasrisk_assets
NG=F, GLD
horizon: 35d
East Asia low

Routine PLA exercises near Taiwan Strait

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 18d
Top tail risk low high

Sudden Ukraine infrastructure strikes triggering natgas supply shock

Invalidate if: Visible progress in high-level talks or troop pullbacks confirming de-escalation pathway

Hotspot calibration: 373/490 hits (76%), Brier 0.225 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-11-01

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -1.00
7d net (n=7): $-3.78B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) +1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=+1.90
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +0.99
real_yield_10y: latest=2.63, z=-1.49
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-11-01

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.57 | 3m -0.92 | 12m 0.14
Rolling Volatility
1m 19.7% | 3m 20.1% | 12m 30.1%
Drawdown
Current -42.2% | Max -48.1%
ENB
6.61 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.57 | 3m -0.92 | 12m -0.10
Rolling Volatility
1m 19.7% | 3m 20.1% | 12m 30.7%
Drawdown
Current -42.2% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (262d)177/38946% [41%-50%]+45.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/633% [10%-70%]-15.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.39 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-29

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (270d)371/70053% [49%-57%]+39.1%Longs only
Recent (8d)10/2343% [26%-63%]-4.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.45 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (6 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (56d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (270d)549/109150% [47%-53%]+41.2%Longs only
Recent (8d)12/2941% [26%-59%]-6.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.43 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.