The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-11-02 04:32 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates ^VIX 2.4σ alertFinancial XLE 2.5σ alert p=59%Commodity USO 1.8σ watchCurrencyCrypto BTC-USD 1.5σ watchRates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency →Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial→SPY is expected to be neutral over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency→UUP is expected to be neutral over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.24 — BTC-USD is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.5σ alert p=59% · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Interest Rates signal 2.4σ alert · DS 79% CT 56%
  • Commodity signal 1.8σ watch · DS 66% CT 53%
  • Crypto signal 1.5σ watch · DS 61% CT 53%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
Silver -2.74σ, Gold -2.47σ lead broad decline
Energies→
Uranium -2.10σ alert down vs Crude +1.65σ up
Ags↘
Wheat -1.93σ, Soybeans -1.70σ lead ag decline
Softs↗
Sugar +1.71σ up at watch level

Commodity Currencies

AUD↗
AUD +0.46z strengthening vs USD
CAD↗
CAD +1.52z strengthening vs USD
NZD→
NZD no data available
BRL↘
BRL -2.03z weakening vs USD

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SI=F commodity $49.10 $49.10 -2.74σ 60d alert SHORT
GC=F * commodity $3,898.90 $3,898.90 -2.47σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX commodity $49.99 $49.99 -2.26σ 252d alert SHORT
URA commodity $33.73 $33.73 -2.10σ 252d alert SHORT
ZW=F commodity $603.50 $603.50 -1.93σ 60d watch SHORT
ALB * commodity $91.00 $91.00 -1.80σ 252d watch SHORT
SB=F commodity $19.36 $19.36 +1.71σ 252d watch LONG
ZS=F commodity $1,222.25 $1,222.25 -1.70σ 30d watch SHORT
CL=F commodity $104.12 $104.12 +1.65σ 30d watch LONG
PDBC commodity $20.02 $20.02 +1.51σ 252d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Primary geopolitical hotspots exhibit weak transmission into core pricing channels with no orthogonal market confirmation of imminent shocks. Second-order ripples in oil and safe-haven FX remain contained; de-escalation equilibria via diplomacy and economic self-interest dominate the 20-session forecast.

Middle East medium

Iran proxy clashes with Israel and Gulf shipping friction

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 35d
Eastern Europe high

Stalemate along Ukraine front with winter energy posturing

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 55d
East Asia low

Routine Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan with rhetoric spikes

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 75d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic strike on Gulf oil infrastructure triggering supply shock

Invalidate if: Visible diplomatic progress, reduced proxy attacks, and stable physical freight/on-chain flows confirming de-escalation equilibrium

Hotspot calibration: 374/491 hits (76%), Brier 0.225 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-11-02

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -1.00
7d net (n=7): $-4.27B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) +1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=+1.90
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +0.99
real_yield_10y: latest=2.63, z=-1.49
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-11-02

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.57 | 3m -0.92 | 12m 0.14
Rolling Volatility
1m 19.7% | 3m 20.1% | 12m 30.1%
Drawdown
Current -42.2% | Max -48.1%
ENB
6.61 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.57 | 3m -0.92 | 12m -0.10
Rolling Volatility
1m 19.7% | 3m 20.1% | 12m 30.7%
Drawdown
Current -42.2% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (262d)177/38946% [41%-50%]+45.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/540% [12%-77%]-11.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.39 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-29 — newer signals are still awaiting resolution (41 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (271d)371/70053% [49%-57%]+39.1%Longs only
Recent (8d)9/1947% [27%-68%]-2.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.45 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (7 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (57d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (271d)549/109150% [47%-53%]+41.2%Longs only
Recent (8d)11/2446% [28%-65%]-4.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.43 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.