The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-11-03 04:33 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates → Financial 3.3σ critical p=65%Interest Rates ^VIX 3.3σ criticalFinancial SPY 2.5σ alert p=53%CommodityCurrencyCrypto BTC-USD 2.0σ alertRates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial→SPY is expected to trade neutral over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗UUP is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.13 — BTC-USD is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Interest Rates signal 3.3σ critical · DS 85% CT 52%
  • Financial signal 2.5σ alert p=53% · DS 81% CT 56%
  • Crypto signal 2.0σ alert · DS 70% CT 56%
  • Interest Rates → Financial chord 3.3σ critical p=65% · DS 85% CT 52%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
Silver -2.74σ & Gold -2.47σ down alerts
Energies→
Uranium -2.10σ down vs Oil +1.65σ up
Ags↘
Wheat -1.93σ, Soybeans -1.70σ down
Softs↗
Sugar +1.71σ up at watch

Commodity Currencies

AUD↗
AUD z30=+0.46 strengthening
CAD↗
CAD z30=+1.52 strengthening
NZD→
NZD no data available
BRL↘
BRL z30=-2.03 weakening

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SI=F commodity $49.10 $49.10 -2.74σ 60d alert SHORT
GC=F commodity $3,898.90 $3,898.90 -2.47σ 30d alert SHORT
REMX commodity $49.99 $49.99 -2.26σ 252d alert SHORT
URA commodity $33.73 $33.73 -2.10σ 252d alert SHORT
ZW=F * commodity $603.50 $603.50 -1.93σ 60d watch SHORT
ALB commodity $91.00 $91.00 -1.80σ 252d watch SHORT
SB=F commodity $19.36 $19.36 +1.71σ 252d watch LONG
ZS=F commodity $1,222.25 $1,222.25 -1.70σ 30d watch SHORT
CL=F commodity $104.12 $104.12 +1.65σ 30d watch LONG
PDBC * commodity $20.02 $20.02 +1.51σ 252d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.37 stable

Transmission from persistent Middle East and Eastern Europe hotspots to core market nodes remains weak, with flat oil forward curves, compressed credit spreads, and no material safe-haven bid in funding currencies; diplomatic signaling and actor reflexivity point to contained risks with no VIX>30 or CL=F±15% shock expected over the 20-session window.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict with nuclear posturing and proxy clashes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 65d
Eastern Europe low

Ukraine front-line stalemate with winter energy infrastructure threats

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 40d
East Asia medium

Elevated Chinese naval activity near Taiwan alongside US ally drills

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPX
horizon: 90d
Top tail risk low severe

Kinetic strike on Iranian facilities triggering Strait of Hormuz supply shock

Invalidate if: Renewed backchannel diplomacy, verifiable Iranian restraint, or joint US-China de-escalation statements

Hotspot calibration: 378/496 hits (76%), Brier 0.225 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-11-03

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -1.00
7d net (n=7): $-4.26B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) +1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=+1.99
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=3.44, z=+1.91
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-11-03

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.07 | 3m -1.26 | 12m 0.02
Rolling Volatility
1m 20.0% | 3m 19.5% | 12m 30.1%
Drawdown
Current -43.3% | Max -48.1%
ENB
6.51 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.07 | 3m -1.26 | 12m -0.27
Rolling Volatility
1m 20.0% | 3m 19.5% | 12m 30.6%
Drawdown
Current -43.3% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (264d)177/38946% [41%-50%]+45.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/119% [2%-38%]-13.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.39 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-10-29 — STALE (5 days behind); figures are not current

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (272d)371/70053% [49%-57%]+39.1%Longs only
Recent (8d)7/1547% [25%-70%]-1.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.45 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (8 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (58d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

Includes a stale commodity or crypto ledger — see the dates above

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (272d)549/109150% [47%-53%]+41.2%Longs only
Recent (8d)8/2631% [17%-50%]-6.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.43 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.