The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-11-05 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Financial → Commodity 2.8σ alert p=41%Interest Rates ^TNX 1.8σ watchFinancial XLF 2.8σ alertCommodityCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial →Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial→SPY is expected to trade neutral over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗UUP is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.07 — BTC-USD is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Financial signal 2.8σ alert · DS 85% CT 56%
  • Interest Rates signal 1.8σ watch · DS 65% CT 53%
  • Financial → Commodity chord 2.8σ alert p=41% · DS 85% CT 56%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
Silver -2.26σ & REMX -2.21σ alert down
Energies↘
Uranium -2.19σ alert down
Ags↘
Soybeans -2.06σ alert down
Softs↗
Sugar +1.55σ up at watch

Commodity Currencies

AUD↗
AUD z30=+0.77 strengthening
CAD↗
CAD z30=+1.55 strengthening
NZD→
NZD no data
BRL↘
BRL z30=-0.14 weakening

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SI=F commodity $50.72 $50.72 -2.26σ 60d alert SHORT
REMX * commodity $50.26 $50.26 -2.21σ 252d alert SHORT
URA * commodity $32.93 $32.93 -2.19σ 252d alert SHORT
ZS=F * commodity $1,204.75 $1,204.75 -2.06σ 30d alert SHORT
ZW=F commodity $606.50 $606.50 -1.81σ 60d watch SHORT
ALB commodity $90.56 $90.56 -1.79σ 252d watch SHORT
GC=F commodity $3,969.60 $3,969.60 -1.76σ 60d watch SHORT
SB=F * commodity $19.06 $19.06 +1.55σ 252d watch LONG

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.32 stable

Persistent hotspots in the Middle East and Eastern Europe exhibit contained transmission to oil and natgas via subdued options skew and steady freight flows; independent market confirmation points to diplomatic signaling and second-order FX/risk-assets stability over the 20-session window.

Middle East medium

Fragile Iran-Israel proxy equilibrium with sporadic Red Sea incidents

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 30d
Eastern Europe high

Winter gas transit talks amid static Ukraine front lines

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 18d
East Asia low

Routine PLA naval patrols near Taiwan with measured US presence

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPX
horizon: 45d
Top tail risk medium high

Sudden breakdown of Ukraine ceasefire leading to NATO Article 5 invocation

Invalidate if: Independent confirmation of progressing backchannel energy and territorial agreements

Hotspot calibration: 381/501 hits (76%), Brier 0.225 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-11-05

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -1.00
7d net (n=7): $-4.08B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) +1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=+1.51
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-5 MOVE index z-score +1.00
^MOVE: z21=-1.79
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-11-05

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.95 | 3m -2.71 | 12m -0.49
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.9% | 3m 22.6% | 12m 30.3%
Drawdown
Current -48.2% | Max -48.9%
ENB
7.16 (assets: 43)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 28% | High-Vol 22% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -4.95 | 3m -2.71 | 12m -0.83
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.9% | 3m 22.6% | 12m 30.6%
Drawdown
Current -48.2% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (266d)178/40144% [40%-49%]+21.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/160% [0%-19%]-53.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.30 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-11-02

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (274d)371/71252% [48%-56%]+21.8%Longs only
Recent (8d)5/1926% [12%-49%]-11.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.27 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (10 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (60d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (274d)550/111549% [46%-52%]+21.8%Longs only
Recent (8d)5/3514% [6%-29%]-30.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.28 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.