The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-11-06 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Interest Rates → Commodity 5.2σ critical p=50%Interest Rates ^VIX 5.2σ criticalFinancial SPY 4.2σ critical p=73%CommodityCurrencyCrypto BTC-USD 2.2σ alertRates ↑Financial ↑Commodity ↑Currency ↑Crypto →Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Financial↗SPY is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↗PDBC is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Currency↗UUP is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
  • Crypto→20d corr -0.23 — BTC-USD is expected to be neutral over the next 20 sessions.
Cascade threads (interpretive aid)
  • Interest Rates signal 5.2σ critical · DS 85% CT 52%
  • Financial signal 4.2σ critical p=73% · DS 85% CT 52%
  • Crypto signal 2.2σ alert · DS 73% CT 56%
  • Interest Rates → Commodity chord 5.2σ critical p=50% · DS 85% CT 52%

Market Situation

Commodity Sectors

Metals↘
REMX -2.04σ alert leads metals down
Energies↘
URA -2.17σ alert drags energy lower
Ags↘
Soybeans -2.03σ alert, ags broadly down
Softs→
No breakouts in coffee or sugar

Commodity Currencies

AUD↘
AUD weakening at -0.68z30
CAD↗
CAD strengthening +1.21z30
NZD→
No data for NZD
BRL↘
BRL weakening at -1.36z30

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
PDBC * commodity $18.63 $18.63 -2.76σ 30d alert SHORT
URA commodity $32.70 $32.70 -2.17σ 252d alert SHORT
REMX commodity $51.73 $51.73 -2.04σ 252d alert SHORT
ZS=F commodity $1,193.25 $1,193.25 -2.03σ 30d alert SHORT
ZW=F commodity $598.50 $598.50 -1.89σ 60d watch SHORT
SI=F commodity $52.12 $52.12 -1.76σ 60d watch SHORT
HG=F * commodity $6.40 $6.40 -1.70σ 30d watch SHORT
ZC=F * commodity $444.25 $444.25 -1.63σ 60d watch SHORT
ALB * commodity $94.97 $94.97 -1.61σ 252d watch SHORT

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
n/a
no open positions

Geopolitical Risk

0.32 stable

Transmission from Levant and Eastern European hotspots to oil, natgas and risk-premia channels remains weak with no orthogonal confirmation from futures curves or vol skews; diplomatic backchannels and physical supply buffers point to contained ripples over the 20-session horizon.

Middle East medium

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire monitoring with sporadic proxy incidents

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 35d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine front stabilization and negotiation signals

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 75d
East Asia low

Routine Chinese Taiwan Strait patrols amid tech decoupling talks

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, TLT
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk medium high

Winter energy crisis reignites full-scale Ukraine offensive

Invalidate if: Continued Ukrainian grain corridor flows and NATO restraint signals point to negotiated de-escalation path

Hotspot calibration: 383/504 hits (76%), Brier 0.225 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-11-06

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -1.00
7d net (n=7): $-4.90B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-2.32
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score +0.62
real_yield_10y: latest=2.64, z=-0.93
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-11-06

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.04 | 3m -3.78 | 12m -0.86
Rolling Volatility
1m 31.0% | 3m 24.8% | 12m 30.6%
Drawdown
Current -52.2% | Max -53.3%
ENB
5.97 (assets: 43)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 24% | High-Vol 26% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.32 | 3m -0.46 | 12m 4.03
Rolling Volatility
1m 47.6% | 3m 62.8% | 12m 63.3%
Drawdown
Current -34.6% | Max -54.1%
ENB
2.84 (assets: 14)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Crypto

No backtest summary available.

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.04 | 3m -3.78 | 12m -1.22
Rolling Volatility
1m 31.0% | 3m 24.8% | 12m 30.7%
Drawdown
Current -52.2% | Max -54.1%
ENB
1.00 (assets: 0)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 36% | High-Vol 14% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (522d)416/95743% [40%-47%]+328.5%Longs only
Out of Sample (267d)176/40244% [39%-49%]-6.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/150% [0%-20%]-51.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.19 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-11-03

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (275d)371/71652% [48%-55%]+12.2%Longs only
Recent (8d)2/1911% [3%-31%]-19.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.13 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

Last updated with signals through 2026-09-27 — sparse by design: the strategy has not fired a signal old enough to score since then (11 pending)

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)42/6961% [49%-72%]+821.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (61d)1/250% [9%-91%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.58 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2396d)2732/598546% [44%-47%]+214.2%Longs only
Out of Sample (275d)548/112049% [46%-52%]+5.4%Longs only
Recent (8d)2/346% [2%-19%]-33.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.15 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.