FIIJ Core Forecast
2026-02-05 · v1.0
Situation
Interest Rates→
policy easing with long-end steepening
Financial↘
broad risk-off with tech underperformance
Commodity→
industrial metals mixed signals
Currency↗
dollar strength vs EUR, yen weakness
Crypto↘
selective weakness with altcoin divergence
Composition data unavailable:wider confidence intervals required
GDP growth +2.0% with unemployment declining -2.2%:economic expansion continues
Fed funds rate down -2.2% to 3.64%:accommodative policy shift
Normal yield curve (0.67% spread):credit conditions normalizing
Consumer sentiment +3.7% to 52.9:gradual confidence recovery
Tech selloff:AMD -17.31%, NVIDIA -3.41% → AI sector correction
Crypto weakness:XRP -6.67%, BTC -2.10% → risk-off sentiment
Without breadth metrics:position sizing should be conservative
Signal
| Asset | Price | Z-Score | Window | Level | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD | $73019.70 | -3.39σ | 60d | critical | down |
| ETH-USD | $2143.50 | -3.23σ | 60d | critical | down |
| SOL-USD | $92.03 | -3.20σ | 60d | critical | down |
| NVDA | $174.19 | -3.12σ | 30d | critical | down |
| MSFT | $414.19 | -2.92σ | 60d | alert | down |
| LINK-USD | $9.25 | -2.76σ | 60d | alert | down |
| XRP-USD | $1.51 | -2.68σ | 60d | alert | down |
| QQQ | $605.75 | -2.59σ | 30d | alert | down |
| CNY=X | $6.94 | -2.41σ | 252d | alert | down |
| ALB | $168.66 | +1.96σ | 252d | watch | up |
| ^TNX | $4.28 | +1.78σ | 60d | watch | up |
| HG=F | $5.83 | +1.67σ | 252d | watch | up |
| REMX | $87.06 | +1.60σ | 252d | watch | up |
| GOOGL | $333.04 | +1.55σ | 252d | watch | up |
| ^IRX | $3.60 | +1.53σ | 30d | watch | up |
| AMD | $200.19 | -1.52σ | 30d | watch | down |
Opportunity
PRIMARY
Small Cap Equities (IWM): Long small cap relative to large cap, historical outperformance 60-70% [uncalibrated] in easing cycles
65%
PRIMARY
Copper: Long copper on economic momentum, 55-65% [uncalibrated] probability of outperformance
65%
SECONDARY
Fed Policy Pivot: Fed funds decline -2.2% suggests continued easing cycle, historically supportive for risk assets 60-75% [uncalibrated] over 30-day periods
64%
SECONDARY
AI Sector Correction: AMD -17.31% signals potential sector rotation, tech corrections typically persist 2-4 weeks 55-70% [uncalibrated]
56%
SECONDARY
Economic Growth Momentum: GDP +2.0% with unemployment -2.2% supports continued expansion, though consumer sentiment at 52.9 remains below historical averages
56%
SECONDARY
Yield Curve Normalization: Normal curve with 0.67% spread suggests reduced recession risk, historically positive for financials 65-80% [uncalibrated]
56%
Domain Weights
Economist: 7% | Data Scientist: 40% | Critical Thinker: 33% | Forecaster: 5% | Psychologist: 14%