FIIJ Core Forecast
2026-02-07 · v1.0
Situation
Interest Rates→
policy easing priced but long-end resistance
Financial↘
small-cap leadership with MSFT -3.09σ critical down
Commodity↗
industrial metals strength signals demand
Currency↘
dollar consolidation with CNY weakness
Crypto↘
risk-off sentiment in digital assets
Direction ratio 62% bullish:modest long bias but near neutral threshold
Breadth momentum -4 (contracting):weakening participation signals caution
Sigma intensity 1.50 (moderate):mixed signal environment with selective opportunities
Dispersion index 2.10 (high):elevated volatility suggests smaller position sizing
Signal distribution:12% critical, 25% alert, 62% watch → few extreme opportunities
Yield curve normal (0.67% spread):supportive credit conditions but policy uncertainty
Signal
| Asset | Price | Z-Score | Window | Level | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | $401.14 | -3.09σ | 252d | critical | LONG |
| BTC-USD | $70555.39 | -2.82σ | 60d | alert | SHORT |
| CNY=X | $6.94 | -2.34σ | 252d | alert | SHORT |
| TSM | $348.85 | +1.92σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| ALB | $163.37 | +1.77σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| HG=F | $5.86 | +1.70σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| IWM | $265.02 | +1.67σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| REMX | $86.63 | +1.55σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
Opportunity
PRIMARY
Microsoft (MSFT): Long position targeting mean reversion with 76% probability [n=271]
76%
PRIMARY
Industrial metals complex: Long exposure to materials with 58% momentum continuation probability [n=128]
58%
PRIMARY
Small-cap value rotation: Maintain small-cap overweight with 58% trend continuation [n=128]
58%
SECONDARY
Small-cap outperformance momentum: Russell 2000 at +1.67σ suggests continued momentum with 58% probability [n=128]
49%
SECONDARY
Technology sector mean reversion: MSFT at -3.09σ critical level suggests 76% probability of mean reversion within 6 days [n=271]
65%
SECONDARY
Industrial metals demand strength: Copper and lithium both showing watch-level signals with 58% continuation probability [n=128]
49%
Performance Scorecard
Backtest (46d):111/240, 46%, +137.6%
Recent (7d):21/56, 38%, +61.8%