FIIJ Core Forecast

2026-02-09 06:46 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Situation

Interest Rates
easing cycle continues but long-end resistance
Financial
small-cap outperformance amid broad market stability
Commodity
industrial metals strength, energy weakness
Currency
dollar weakness, yuan strength
Crypto
extended decline suggesting mean reversion opportunity
Direction ratio 62% bullish:moderate long bias despite recent bearish shift (-22pp)
Breadth momentum +0 (stable):sideways consolidation phase likely
Sigma intensity 1.50 (moderate):mixed signal environment, selective opportunities
Dispersion index 2.08 (high):elevated volatility, smaller position sizing warranted
Signal distribution:12% critical, 25% alert, 62% watch → few extreme moves, mostly range-bound
Yield curve normal (0.67% spread):supportive credit conditions, no inversion stress

Signal

AssetPriceZ-ScoreWindowLevelTrade
MSFT $401.14 -3.18σ 252d critical LONG
BTC-USD $70264.73 -2.63σ 252d alert SHORT
CNY=X $6.94 -2.36σ 252d alert SHORT
TSM $348.85 +1.92σ 252d watch LONG
ALB $163.37 +1.76σ 252d watch LONG
HG=F $5.86 +1.69σ 252d watch LONG
IWM $265.02 +1.67σ 252d watch LONG
REMX $86.63 +1.54σ 252d watch LONG

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Bitcoin: Mean reversion trade with 76% historical success rate on 2σ+ moves
76%
PRIMARY
Microsoft: Contrarian long position targeting mean reversion within 6 days
76%
PRIMARY
Small Cap Russell 2000: Continued small-cap outperformance trend
58%
SECONDARY
Fed Policy Normalization: Continued rate cuts with 3.64% fed funds (-2.2% monthly) supporting risk assets, though 10Y yield resistance at 4.21% may limit duration rally
49%
SECONDARY
Industrial Metals Momentum: Copper at +1.69σ and lithium at +1.76σ suggest continued industrial demand strength, supporting cyclical sectors
49%
SECONDARY
Dollar Weakness Trend: USD/CNY at -2.36σ DOWN with broad dollar weakness supporting emerging markets and commodities
65%

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (46d):111/240, 46%, +137.6%
Recent (7d):21/56, 38%, +61.8%