The Silk - Commodity Forecast BETA

2026-04-20 · local

About This Report BETA

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.

Situation

Metals
↗
Lithium +2.06σ/60d alert; Rare Earths +1.83σ, Copper +1.82σ watch. Broad strengt
Energies
→
Uranium +2.29σ/30d alert leads; Crude Oil -1.72σ/30d watch offsets. Mixed signal
Ags
↗
Wheat +1.77σ/252d watch; Soybeans & Corn quiet. Modest upside bias
Softs
↘
Sugar -2.14σ/252d alert, sharp decline. Coffee neutral. Sector under pressure
AUD
↗
AUD z30=+1.56 strengthening, aligned with metals/copper rally
CAD
↗
CAD z30=+1.18 strengthening despite mixed energy signals
NZD
→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate
BRL
↗
BRL z30=+1.95 strong bid, near alert threshold. Leading commod FX

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 89% bullish (+6pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.56 (56% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +54bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.47 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 8
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowDir PDSCurrency
URA [alert] energy $55.86 +2.29σ 30d up 0.48 strengthening
SB=F [alert] softs $13.31 -2.14σ 252d down 0.49 strengthening
ALB [alert] metals $197.75 +2.06σ 60d up 0.49 strengthening
PDBC [watch] broad $16.84 +1.93σ 252d up 0.51 —
REMX [watch] metals $101.63 +1.83σ 252d up 0.51 strengthening
HG=F [watch] metals $6.10 +1.82σ 30d up 0.57 strengthening
ZW=F [watch] agriculture $591.25 +1.77σ 252d up 0.43 strengthening
CL=F [watch] energy $83.85 -1.72σ 30d down 0.45 strengthening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Uranium ETF (URA): ALERT +2.29σ → long (65%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.48), currency, silk_direction)
50%
PRIMARY
Sugar (SB=F): ALERT -2.14σ → short (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.49))
50%
PRIMARY
Lithium (Albemarle proxy) (ALB): ALERT +2.06σ → long (65%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.49), currency, silk_direction)
50%
SECONDARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): WATCH +1.93σ → long (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.51), silk_direction)
50%
SECONDARY
Rare Earths ETF (REMX): WATCH +1.83σ → long (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.51), currency, silk_direction)
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.82σ → long (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.57), currency, silk_direction)
50%
SECONDARY
Wheat (ZW=F): WATCH +1.77σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), currency, silk_direction)
50%
SECONDARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH -1.72σ → short (52%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard BETA

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
URA 0.479 0.72 0.70 0.02 composite tense
SB=F 0.488 0.75 0.66 0.05 composite tense
ALB 0.490 0.74 0.70 0.03 atomic tense
PDBC 0.508 0.88 0.59 0.06 atomic dissonant
REMX 0.510 0.81 0.67 0.05 atomic tense
HG=F 0.565 0.78 0.82 0.10 composite tense
ZW=F 0.433 0.61 0.65 0.04 composite tense
CL=F 0.449 0.90 0.39 0.05 atomic tense
GC=F 0.481 0.66 0.71 0.07 atomic tense
SI=F 0.462 0.72 0.57 0.09 atomic tense
NG=F 0.353 0.59 0.41 0.06 composite dissonant
ZS=F 0.519 0.61 0.88 0.07 composite consonant
ZC=F 0.439 0.57 0.71 0.03 composite tense
KC=F 0.358 0.62 0.43 0.03 composite dissonant