The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-05-07 · local

Situation

Metals
↗
Copper +1.84σ/60d & REMX +1.75σ/252d both at watch; broad strength vs USD
Energies
→
No breakout signals; crude, natgas, uranium all below alert thresholds
Ags
↗
Soybeans +2.47σ/30d alert; wheat +1.86σ & corn +1.85σ watch—broad ag bid
Softs
→
Coffee & sugar show no z-score breakouts; sector quiet
AUD
↗
AUD z30=+1.60 strengthening, aligned with metals bid
CAD
↗
CAD z30=+1.43 strengthening despite flat energy signals
NZD
→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate
BRL
↗
BRL z30=+1.94 strongest commodity FX, supports ag rally thesis

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 80% bullish (-6pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.80 (67% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +52bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.48 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 6
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
ZS=F [alert] agriculture $1,203.50 +2.47σ 30d LONG 0.57 strengthening
PDBC [alert] broad $18.59 +2.44σ 252d LONG 0.51 —
ZW=F [watch] agriculture $611.25 +1.86σ 252d LONG 0.47 strengthening
ZC=F [watch] agriculture $470.50 +1.85σ 252d LONG 0.42 strengthening
HG=F [watch] * metals $6.18 +1.84σ 60d LONG 0.52 strengthening
REMX [watch] metals $103.83 +1.75σ 252d LONG 0.44 strengthening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): ALERT +2.47σ → long (65%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.57), currency_z(1.9), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
PRIMARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): ALERT +2.44σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.51), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
SECONDARY
Wheat (ZW=F): WATCH +1.86σ → long (59%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.47), currency_z(1.9), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
SECONDARY
Corn (ZC=F): WATCH +1.85σ → long (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.42), currency_z(1.9), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.84σ → long (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.52), currency_z(1.6), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
SECONDARY
Rare Earths ETF (REMX): WATCH +1.75σ → long (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.44), currency_z(1.6), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
ZS=F 0.574 0.85 0.78 0.09 composite dissonant
PDBC 0.509 0.78 0.73 0.02 composite dissonant
ZW=F 0.471 0.70 0.65 0.06 composite consonant
ZC=F 0.419 0.80 0.38 0.08 composite dissonant
HG=F 0.523 0.81 0.68 0.08 composite tense
REMX 0.438 0.68 0.59 0.05 atomic tense
GC=F 0.489 0.69 0.71 0.07 composite dissonant
SI=F 0.469 0.76 0.59 0.06 atomic dissonant
CL=F 0.467 0.75 0.58 0.07 composite tense
NG=F 0.378 0.64 0.42 0.07 atomic consonant
KC=F 0.425 0.80 0.43 0.04 composite tense
SB=F 0.486 0.82 0.55 0.09 composite tense
ALB 0.391 0.68 0.45 0.04 composite tense
URA 0.437 0.76 0.48 0.07 composite dissonant

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):674/1643, 41%, +363.2%
In Sample (76d):20/47, 43%, +12.7%
Recent (8d):2/3, 67%, +2.2%
Brier Score:0.253 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.