The Silk - Commodity Forecast

Situation

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 95% bullish (+17pp weekly)

Sigma intensity: 1.63 (42% alert)

Yield curve: normal at +52bp

Geopolitical risk: 0.52 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts

Breakouts: 8

PDS computed: 14

Signal

Asset	Sector	Price	Z-Score	Window	Trade	PDS	Currency
PDBC [alert]	broad	$18.07	+2.04σ	252d	LONG	0.47	—
HG=F [alert]	metals	$6.25	+2.02σ	60d	LONG	0.45	strengthening
REMX [watch] *	metals	$106.38	+1.86σ	252d	LONG	0.48	strengthening
ALB [watch]	metals	$203.52	+1.81σ	60d	LONG	0.45	strengthening
ZW=F [watch] *	agriculture	$607.50	+1.71σ	252d	LONG	0.36	strengthening
CL=F [watch] *	energy	$95.42	+1.66σ	252d	LONG	0.47	strengthening
ZS=F [watch] *	agriculture	$1,194.25	+1.62σ	252d	LONG	0.42	strengthening
SI=F [watch] *	metals	$80.39	+1.50σ	30d	LONG	0.45	strengthening

Opportunity

PRIMARY

Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): ALERT +2.04σ → long (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.47), silk_ratio(0.95))

50%

PRIMARY

Copper (HG=F): ALERT +2.02σ → long (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), currency_z(1.3), silk_ratio(0.95))

50%

SECONDARY

Rare Earths ETF (REMX): WATCH +1.86σ → long (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.48), currency_z(1.3), silk_ratio(0.95))

50%

SECONDARY

Lithium (Albemarle proxy) (ALB): WATCH +1.81σ → long (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), currency_z(1.3), silk_ratio(0.95))

50%

SECONDARY

Wheat (ZW=F): WATCH +1.71σ → long (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.36), currency_z(1.6), silk_ratio(0.95))

50%

SECONDARY

Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH +1.66σ → long (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.47), currency_z(0.7), silk_ratio(0.95))

50%

SECONDARY

Soybeans (ZS=F): WATCH +1.62σ → long (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.42), currency_z(1.6), silk_ratio(0.95))

50%

SECONDARY

Silver (SI=F): WATCH +1.50σ → long (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), currency_z(1.3), silk_ratio(0.95))

50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

Asset	PDS	Stability	Coherence	Coupling	Mode	Consonance
PDBC	0.474	0.66	0.73	0.03	composite	—
HG=F	0.447	0.72	0.57	0.05	composite	—
REMX	0.477	0.64	0.77	0.02	composite	—
ALB	0.454	0.54	0.76	0.06	atomic	—
ZW=F	0.365	0.68	0.38	0.03	composite	—
CL=F	0.467	0.73	0.57	0.10	composite	—
ZS=F	0.418	0.67	0.52	0.06	composite	—
SI=F	0.447	0.58	0.68	0.07	composite	—
GC=F	0.481	0.60	0.78	0.06	composite	—
NG=F	0.443	0.56	0.67	0.10	atomic	—
ZC=F	0.347	0.64	0.38	0.02	composite	—
KC=F	0.435	0.71	0.35	0.24	composite	—
SB=F	0.483	0.70	0.68	0.06	atomic	—
URA	0.478	0.59	0.79	0.05	composite	—

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):674/1643, 41%, +363.2%

In Sample (79d):20/47, 43%, +12.7%

Recent (8d):0/2, 0%, -2.6%

Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.