The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-05-12 · local

Situation

Metals
↗
Silver critical at +3.13σ/30d; Copper +2.85σ/60d. Broad metals surge despite USD
Energies
↗
NatGas +1.89σ/30d, WTI +1.81σ/252d, Uranium +1.55σ. Watch-level uptrend across c
Ags
↗
Soybeans +2.55σ/30d alert; Wheat +2.47σ/252d. Corn near breakout at +1.99σ
Softs
↘
Coffee -1.98σ/30d pullback offsets flat Sugar. Sector diverging from broad rally
AUD
↗
AUD z30=+1.09 strengthening, aligned with metals/energy surge
CAD
↗
CAD z30=+0.50 mild strengthening, supported by crude WTI watch-level bid
NZD
→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate
BRL
↗
BRL z30=+1.24 strengthening, strongest commodity FX; ag exports supportive

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 95% bullish (+5pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.63 (42% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +52bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.47 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 12
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
SI=F [critical] metals $87.62 +3.13σ 30d SHORT 0.49 strengthening
HG=F [alert] metals $6.49 +2.85σ 60d LONG 0.44 strengthening
ZS=F [alert] agriculture $1,213.00 +2.55σ 30d LONG 0.49 strengthening
ZW=F [alert] agriculture $638.75 +2.47σ 252d LONG 0.40 strengthening
PDBC [alert] broad $18.55 +2.26σ 252d LONG 0.51 —
ALB [alert] metals $209.99 +2.18σ 60d LONG 0.45 strengthening
REMX [alert] metals $109.53 +2.04σ 252d LONG 0.43 strengthening
ZC=F [watch] * agriculture $474.50 +1.99σ 252d LONG 0.53 strengthening
KC=F [watch] * softs $281.30 -1.98σ 30d SHORT 0.61 strengthening
NG=F [watch] * energy $2.93 +1.89σ 30d LONG 0.36 strengthening
CL=F [watch] energy $98.23 +1.81σ 252d LONG 0.58 strengthening
URA [watch] * energy $57.23 +1.55σ 252d LONG 0.43 strengthening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Silver (SI=F): CRITICAL +3.13σ → short (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.49), currency_z(1.1), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
PRIMARY
Copper (HG=F): ALERT +2.85σ → long (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.44), currency_z(1.1), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
PRIMARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): ALERT +2.55σ → long (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.49), currency_z(1.2), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
PRIMARY
Wheat (ZW=F): ALERT +2.47σ → long (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.40), currency_z(1.2), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
PRIMARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): ALERT +2.26σ → long (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.51), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
PRIMARY
Lithium (Albemarle proxy) (ALB): ALERT +2.18σ → long (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), currency_z(1.1), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
PRIMARY
Rare Earths ETF (REMX): ALERT +2.04σ → long (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), currency_z(1.1), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
SECONDARY
Corn (ZC=F): WATCH +1.99σ → long (59%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.53), currency_z(1.2), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
SECONDARY
Coffee (KC=F): WATCH -1.98σ → short (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.61), currency_z(1.5), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
SECONDARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): WATCH +1.89σ → long (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.36), currency_z(0.5), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
SECONDARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH +1.81σ → long (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.58), currency_z(0.5), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%
SECONDARY
Uranium ETF (URA): WATCH +1.55σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), currency_z(0.5), silk_ratio(0.95))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
SI=F 0.486 0.58 0.79 0.09 composite dissonant
HG=F 0.439 0.77 0.49 0.06 composite tense
ZS=F 0.487 0.75 0.67 0.04 composite dissonant
ZW=F 0.399 0.72 0.46 0.02 composite dissonant
PDBC 0.509 0.77 0.70 0.05 composite dissonant
ALB 0.446 0.61 0.67 0.06 atomic dissonant
REMX 0.430 0.54 0.69 0.06 composite tense
ZC=F 0.534 0.64 0.93 0.04 composite tense
KC=F 0.611 0.77 0.79 0.27 atomic consonant
NG=F 0.357 0.57 0.41 0.09 atomic tense
CL=F 0.582 0.89 0.78 0.08 atomic consonant
URA 0.427 0.56 0.69 0.03 composite dissonant
GC=F 0.460 0.60 0.70 0.08 composite dissonant
SB=F 0.467 0.61 0.71 0.08 composite dissonant

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):674/1643, 41%, +363.2%
In Sample (81d):20/48, 42%, +3.2%
Recent (8d):0/2, 0%, -11.0%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.