The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-05-14 · local

Situation

Metals
↗
Silver critical at +3.13σ/30d; Copper +2.85σ/60d. Broad metals surge despite str
Energies
↗
NatGas leads at +1.89σ/30d; WTI +1.81σ/252d. Moderate upside, no breakouts yet
Ags
↗
Soybeans +2.55σ/30d alert; Wheat +2.46σ/252d. Broad ag rally with Corn at +2.00σ
Softs
↘
Coffee declining at -1.98σ/30d; Sugar flat. Sector diverges from broad commodity
AUD
↗
AUD firming z30=+1.06, supported by metals surge and broad commodity strength
CAD
↗
CAD mild bid z30=+0.33, modest support from energy sector watch-level moves
NZD
→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate despite broad commodity tailw
BRL
↗
BRL strongest commodity FX z30=+1.19, aligned with ag sector alert signals

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 88% bullish (-6pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 2.12 (38% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +52bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.41 (de)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 12
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
SI=F [critical] * metals $87.62 +3.13σ 30d SHORT 0.52 strengthening
HG=F [alert] metals $6.49 +2.85σ 60d LONG 0.52 strengthening
ZS=F [alert] * agriculture $1,213.00 +2.55σ 30d LONG 0.42 strengthening
ZW=F [alert] * agriculture $638.75 +2.46σ 252d LONG 0.38 strengthening
PDBC [alert] broad $18.55 +2.25σ 252d LONG 0.45 —
ALB [alert] metals $209.99 +2.18σ 60d LONG 0.51 strengthening
REMX [alert] * metals $109.53 +2.04σ 252d LONG 0.53 strengthening
ZC=F [watch] agriculture $474.50 +2.00σ 252d LONG 0.38 strengthening
KC=F [watch] softs $281.30 -1.98σ 30d SHORT 0.40 strengthening
NG=F [watch] energy $2.93 +1.89σ 30d LONG 0.39 strengthening
CL=F [watch] * energy $98.23 +1.81σ 252d LONG 0.43 strengthening
URA [watch] energy $57.23 +1.54σ 252d LONG 0.32 strengthening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Silver (SI=F): CRITICAL +3.13σ → short (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.52), currency_z(1.1), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
PRIMARY
Copper (HG=F): ALERT +2.85σ → long (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.52), currency_z(1.1), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
PRIMARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): ALERT +2.55σ → long (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.42), currency_z(1.2), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
PRIMARY
Wheat (ZW=F): ALERT +2.46σ → long (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.38), currency_z(1.2), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
PRIMARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): ALERT +2.25σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
PRIMARY
Lithium (Albemarle proxy) (ALB): ALERT +2.18σ → long (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.51), currency_z(1.1), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
PRIMARY
Rare Earths ETF (REMX): ALERT +2.04σ → long (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.53), currency_z(1.1), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
SECONDARY
Corn (ZC=F): WATCH +2.00σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.38), currency_z(1.2), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
SECONDARY
Coffee (KC=F): WATCH -1.98σ → short (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.40), currency_z(0.3), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
SECONDARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): WATCH +1.89σ → long (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(0.3), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
SECONDARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH +1.81σ → long (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), currency_z(0.3), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%
SECONDARY
Uranium ETF (URA): WATCH +1.54σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.32), currency_z(0.3), silk_ratio(0.88))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
SI=F 0.517 0.73 0.76 0.06 atomic tense
HG=F 0.517 0.85 0.66 0.05 atomic consonant
ZS=F 0.422 0.63 0.57 0.06 composite tense
ZW=F 0.375 0.60 0.46 0.06 composite dissonant
PDBC 0.448 0.60 0.72 0.03 composite consonant
ALB 0.506 0.59 0.87 0.06 atomic consonant
REMX 0.530 0.63 0.91 0.05 composite tense
ZC=F 0.385 0.68 0.43 0.05 composite tense
KC=F 0.400 0.81 0.36 0.02 composite tense
NG=F 0.388 0.66 0.45 0.05 composite tense
CL=F 0.432 0.74 0.51 0.05 composite tense
URA 0.322 0.43 0.48 0.05 composite tense
GC=F 0.531 0.70 0.85 0.05 composite consonant
SB=F 0.474 0.64 0.74 0.05 composite tense

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):674/1643, 41%, +363.2%
In Sample (83d):20/48, 42%, +3.2%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.