The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-05-17 · local

Situation

Metals
↗
Copper surges +2.52σ/60d alert; Gold, Silver firm despite USD strength
Energies
↗
WTI +1.94σ/252d watch, NatGas +1.83σ/30d; broad energy bid building
Ags
↗
Wheat +2.80σ/252d alert leads; Corn +1.77σ, Soybeans +1.62σ watch
Softs
↘
Coffee -2.55σ/30d alert selloff; Sugar neutral near baseline
AUD
↗
Mild +0.06 z30 strengthening; metals bid supportive but muted
CAD
↘
Weakening at z30=-0.35 despite energy rally; divergence notable
NZD
→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate
BRL
↘
Sharp weakness z30=-1.10; ag strength not translating to BRL support

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 80% bullish (-10pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.73 (53% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +52bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.48 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 8
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
ZW=F [alert] agriculture $661.50 +2.80σ 252d LONG 0.32 weakening
KC=F [alert] softs $274.90 -2.55σ 30d SHORT 0.54 weakening
HG=F [alert] metals $6.58 +2.52σ 60d LONG 0.50 strengthening
PDBC [alert] broad $18.60 +2.15σ 252d LONG 0.47 —
CL=F [watch] energy $101.78 +1.94σ 252d LONG 0.41 weakening
NG=F [watch] energy $2.93 +1.83σ 30d LONG 0.35 weakening
ZC=F [watch] agriculture $470.25 +1.77σ 252d LONG 0.39 weakening
ZS=F [watch] agriculture $1,199.00 +1.62σ 252d LONG 0.37 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Wheat (ZW=F): ALERT +2.80σ → long (59%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.32), currency_z(-0.5), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
PRIMARY
Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.55σ → short (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.54), currency_z(-1.1), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
PRIMARY
Copper (HG=F): ALERT +2.52σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.50), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
PRIMARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): ALERT +2.15σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.47), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
SECONDARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH +1.94σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.41), currency_z(-0.3), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
SECONDARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): WATCH +1.83σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.35), currency_z(-0.3), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
SECONDARY
Corn (ZC=F): WATCH +1.77σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-0.5), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%
SECONDARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): WATCH +1.62σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.37), currency_z(-0.5), silk_ratio(0.80))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
ZW=F 0.316 0.39 0.52 0.04 composite tense
KC=F 0.544 0.79 0.73 0.11 composite tense
HG=F 0.499 0.74 0.71 0.04 atomic tense
PDBC 0.475 0.56 0.81 0.06 atomic tense
CL=F 0.412 0.66 0.50 0.07 composite consonant
NG=F 0.347 0.61 0.36 0.08 composite tense
ZC=F 0.386 0.63 0.46 0.07 composite consonant
ZS=F 0.374 0.52 0.55 0.04 composite tense
GC=F 0.555 0.69 0.89 0.08 atomic consonant
SI=F 0.516 0.69 0.78 0.08 composite tense
SB=F 0.491 0.71 0.68 0.08 composite tense
ALB 0.547 0.65 0.97 0.03 composite tense
REMX 0.547 0.72 0.85 0.07 atomic consonant
URA 0.480 0.64 0.77 0.04 atomic dissonant

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):674/1643, 41%, +363.2%
In Sample (86d):20/48, 42%, +3.2%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.