# The Silk - Commodity Forecast - 2026-05-17

**Generated from**: local

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## 1. Situation

<!-- BANNER_DATA: {"sectors": {"metals": {"summary": "Copper surges +2.52\u03c3/60d alert; Gold, Silver firm despite USD strength", "direction": "up"}, "energy": {"summary": "WTI +1.94\u03c3/252d watch, NatGas +1.83\u03c3/30d; broad energy bid building", "direction": "up"}, "agriculture": {"summary": "Wheat +2.80\u03c3/252d alert leads; Corn +1.77\u03c3, Soybeans +1.62\u03c3 watch", "direction": "up"}, "softs": {"summary": "Coffee -2.55\u03c3/30d alert selloff; Sugar neutral near baseline", "direction": "down"}}, "currencies": {"AUD": {"summary": "Mild +0.06 z30 strengthening; metals bid supportive but muted", "direction": "up"}, "CAD": {"summary": "Weakening at z30=-0.35 despite energy rally; divergence notable", "direction": "down"}, "NZD": {"summary": "No z-score data available; direction indeterminate", "direction": "neutral"}, "BRL": {"summary": "Sharp weakness z30=-1.10; ag strength not translating to BRL support", "direction": "down"}}} -->

### Silk Spiderweb Context

- Direction ratio: 80% bullish (-10pp weekly)
- Sigma intensity: 1.73 (53% alert)
- Yield curve: normal at +52bp
- Geopolitical risk: 0.48 (stable)

### Commodity Scan Summary

- Scanned: 14 contracts
- Breakouts: 8
- PDS computed: 14

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## 2. Signal

| Asset | Sector | Price | Z-Score | Window | Trade | PDS | Currency |
|-------|--------|-------|---------|--------|-------|-----|----------|
| ZW=F [alert] | agriculture | $661.50 | +2.80σ | 252d | LONG | 0.32 | weakening |
| KC=F [alert] | softs | $274.90 | -2.55σ | 30d | SHORT | 0.54 | weakening |
| HG=F [alert] | metals | $6.58 | +2.52σ | 60d | LONG | 0.50 | strengthening |
| PDBC [alert] | broad | $18.60 | +2.15σ | 252d | LONG | 0.47 | — |
| CL=F [watch] | energy | $101.78 | +1.94σ | 252d | LONG | 0.41 | weakening |
| NG=F [watch] | energy | $2.93 | +1.83σ | 30d | LONG | 0.35 | weakening |
| ZC=F [watch] | agriculture | $470.25 | +1.77σ | 252d | LONG | 0.39 | weakening |
| ZS=F [watch] | agriculture | $1,199.00 | +1.62σ | 252d | LONG | 0.37 | weakening |

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## 3. Opportunity

- **Primary**: Wheat (ZW=F): ALERT +2.80σ → long (59%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.32), currency_z(-0.5), silk_ratio(0.80))
- **Primary**: Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.55σ → short (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.54), currency_z(-1.1), silk_ratio(0.80))
- **Primary**: Copper (HG=F): ALERT +2.52σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.50), silk_ratio(0.80))
- **Primary**: Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): ALERT +2.15σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.47), silk_ratio(0.80))
- **Secondary**: Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH +1.94σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.41), currency_z(-0.3), silk_ratio(0.80))
- **Secondary**: Natural Gas (NG=F): WATCH +1.83σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.35), currency_z(-0.3), silk_ratio(0.80))
- **Secondary**: Corn (ZC=F): WATCH +1.77σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-0.5), silk_ratio(0.80))
- **Secondary**: Soybeans (ZS=F): WATCH +1.62σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.37), currency_z(-0.5), silk_ratio(0.80))

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## 4. PDS Coherence Dashboard

| Asset | PDS | Stability | Coherence | Coupling | Mode | Consonance |
|-------|-----|-----------|-----------|----------|------|------------|
| ZW=F | 0.316 | 0.39 | 0.52 | 0.04 | composite | tense |
| KC=F | 0.544 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.11 | composite | tense |
| HG=F | 0.499 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.04 | atomic | tense |
| PDBC | 0.475 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 0.06 | atomic | tense |
| CL=F | 0.412 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 0.07 | composite | consonant |
| NG=F | 0.347 | 0.61 | 0.36 | 0.08 | composite | tense |
| ZC=F | 0.386 | 0.63 | 0.46 | 0.07 | composite | consonant |
| ZS=F | 0.374 | 0.52 | 0.55 | 0.04 | composite | tense |
| GC=F | 0.555 | 0.69 | 0.89 | 0.08 | atomic | consonant |
| SI=F | 0.516 | 0.69 | 0.78 | 0.08 | composite | tense |
| SB=F | 0.491 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.08 | composite | tense |
| ALB | 0.547 | 0.65 | 0.97 | 0.03 | composite | tense |
| REMX | 0.547 | 0.72 | 0.85 | 0.07 | atomic | consonant |
| URA | 0.480 | 0.64 | 0.77 | 0.04 | atomic | dissonant |

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**Sources**: Silk Report, yfinance, Stationarity (PDS)


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## About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

**Silk Report linkage.** The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

**Signal table.** Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

**Opportunity panel and percentages.** Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

**PDS Coherence Dashboard.** The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.