The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-05-18 · local

Situation

Metals
→
Gold pullback -1.68σ/30d; Cu +1.60σ/252d up. Mixed signals, USD strength caps up
Energies
↗
NatGas alert +2.19σ/30d; WTI +1.92σ/252d. Broad energy strength, URA weak -1.58σ
Ags
↗
Wheat alert +2.50σ/252d leads; Corn +1.55σ, Beans +1.54σ. Broad ag rally
Softs
↘
Coffee sharp selloff -2.55σ/30d alert; Sugar neutral. Sector under pressure
AUD
→
Marginal strength z30=+0.06; near neutral, metals mixed provide no catalyst
CAD
↘
Weakening z30=-0.35 despite energy rally; divergence from crude strength
NZD
→
No data available; direction indeterminate
BRL
↘
Sharp weakness z30=-1.10; coffee collapse and soft sector drag weigh heavily

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 86% bullish (-9pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 2.00 (14% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +52bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.42 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 10
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
KC=F [alert] softs $274.90 -2.55σ 30d SHORT 0.54 weakening
ZW=F [alert] * agriculture $653.00 +2.50σ 252d LONG 0.37 weakening
NG=F [alert] energy $3.02 +2.19σ 30d LONG 0.46 weakening
PDBC [alert] broad $18.61 +2.12σ 252d LONG 0.43 —
CL=F [watch] * energy $102.37 +1.92σ 252d LONG 0.39 weakening
GC=F [watch] * metals $4,537.90 -1.68σ 30d SHORT 0.61 strengthening
HG=F [watch] metals $6.28 +1.60σ 252d LONG 0.42 strengthening
URA [watch] * energy $49.93 -1.58σ 30d SHORT 0.38 weakening
ZC=F [watch] agriculture $465.75 +1.55σ 252d LONG 0.41 weakening
ZS=F [watch] * agriculture $1,194.75 +1.54σ 252d LONG 0.42 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.55σ → short (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.54), currency_z(-1.1), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
PRIMARY
Wheat (ZW=F): ALERT +2.50σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.37), currency_z(-0.5), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
PRIMARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): ALERT +2.19σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-0.3), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
PRIMARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): ALERT +2.12σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
SECONDARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH +1.92σ → long (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-0.3), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
SECONDARY
Gold (GC=F): WATCH -1.68σ → short (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.61), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.60σ → long (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.42), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
SECONDARY
Uranium ETF (URA): WATCH -1.58σ → short (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.38), currency_z(-0.3), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
SECONDARY
Corn (ZC=F): WATCH +1.55σ → long (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.41), currency_z(-0.5), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
SECONDARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): WATCH +1.54σ → long (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.42), currency_z(-0.5), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
KC=F 0.544 0.79 0.73 0.11 composite tense
ZW=F 0.367 0.51 0.51 0.07 composite tense
NG=F 0.458 0.62 0.70 0.06 composite consonant
PDBC 0.428 0.63 0.62 0.04 composite tense
CL=F 0.391 0.63 0.48 0.06 composite tense
GC=F 0.606 0.89 0.84 0.09 composite dissonant
HG=F 0.421 0.66 0.52 0.09 composite tense
URA 0.377 0.61 0.50 0.02 composite tense
ZC=F 0.411 0.75 0.43 0.05 composite tense
ZS=F 0.421 0.58 0.65 0.03 composite tense
SI=F 0.510 0.74 0.73 0.07 composite consonant
SB=F 0.522 0.69 0.81 0.06 atomic tense
ALB 0.486 0.64 0.74 0.07 composite consonant
REMX 0.470 0.61 0.75 0.05 composite tense

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (87d):19/39, 49%, +20.1%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.