The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-05-20 · local

Situation

Metals
→
Gold pulling back -1.68σ/30d; Copper firm +1.60σ/252d. Mixed signals.
Energies
↗
NatGas surging +2.19σ/30d alert; WTI strong +1.92σ/252d; URA down -2.06σ
Ags
↗
Wheat alert at +2.50σ/252d leading; Corn +1.55σ, Soybeans +1.54σ broad bid
Softs
↘
Coffee critical at -3.08σ/60d selloff dominates; Sugar quiet no breakout
AUD
↘
Mild weakness z30=-0.35; commodity tailwinds not yet reflected
CAD
↘
Weakening z30=-0.66 despite strong crude; divergence notable
NZD
→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate
BRL
↘
Sharp weakness z30=-1.22 leading commodity FX lower

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 75% bullish (-16pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.88 (38% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +52bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.48 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 10
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
KC=F [critical] * softs $266.50 -3.08σ 60d LONG 0.45 weakening
ZW=F [alert] agriculture $653.00 +2.50σ 252d LONG 0.46 weakening
NG=F [alert] * energy $3.02 +2.19σ 30d LONG 0.41 weakening
PDBC [alert] broad $18.72 +2.15σ 252d LONG 0.47 —
URA [alert] energy $48.68 -2.06σ 30d SHORT 0.49 weakening
CL=F [watch] energy $102.37 +1.92σ 252d LONG 0.37 weakening
GC=F [watch] metals $4,537.90 -1.68σ 30d SHORT 0.51 weakening
HG=F [watch] metals $6.28 +1.60σ 252d LONG 0.37 weakening
ZC=F [watch] * agriculture $465.75 +1.55σ 252d LONG 0.54 weakening
ZS=F [watch] agriculture $1,194.75 +1.54σ 252d LONG 0.51 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Coffee (KC=F): CRITICAL -3.08σ → long (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), currency_z(-1.2), silk_ratio(0.75))
50%
PRIMARY
Wheat (ZW=F): ALERT +2.50σ → long (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.75))
50%
PRIMARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): ALERT +2.19σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.41), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.75))
50%
PRIMARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): ALERT +2.15σ → long (59%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.47), silk_ratio(0.75))
50%
PRIMARY
Uranium ETF (URA): ALERT -2.06σ → short (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.49), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.75))
50%
SECONDARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH +1.92σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.37), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.75))
50%
SECONDARY
Gold (GC=F): WATCH -1.68σ → short (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.51), currency_z(-0.3), silk_ratio(0.75))
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.60σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.37), currency_z(-0.3), silk_ratio(0.75))
50%
SECONDARY
Corn (ZC=F): WATCH +1.55σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.54), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.75))
50%
SECONDARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): WATCH +1.54σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.51), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.75))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
KC=F 0.453 0.72 0.38 0.26 composite —
ZW=F 0.465 0.66 0.67 0.06 composite —
NG=F 0.413 0.65 0.56 0.03 composite —
PDBC 0.467 0.64 0.72 0.04 composite —
URA 0.487 0.75 0.67 0.04 composite —
CL=F 0.365 0.63 0.41 0.06 atomic —
GC=F 0.512 0.84 0.64 0.05 composite —
HG=F 0.370 0.65 0.40 0.06 atomic —
ZC=F 0.538 0.81 0.73 0.07 atomic —
ZS=F 0.510 0.70 0.78 0.05 composite —
SI=F 0.489 0.84 0.56 0.06 composite —
SB=F 0.494 0.80 0.62 0.06 atomic —
ALB 0.427 0.60 0.62 0.06 composite —
REMX 0.541 0.80 0.78 0.04 composite —

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (89d):19/39, 49%, +20.1%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.