The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-05-23 · local

Situation

Metals
→
Lithium -1.85σ/30d dragging; Cu +1.65σ/252d offsets. Mixed signals
Energies
↗
NatGas +1.70σ/30d, WTI +1.62σ/252d rising; URA -1.69σ/30d weak
Ags
↗
Wheat alert +2.51σ/252d leads; Soy +1.55σ, Corn +1.52σ all up
Softs
↘
Coffee alert -2.06σ/60d selloff; Sugar quiet. Sector pressured
AUD
↘
z30=-0.66 mild weakness; commodity support not translating
CAD
↘
z30=-1.79 notable weakness despite crude strength; divergence
NZD
→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate
BRL
↘
z30=-1.16 weakening; ag strength not supporting real

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 63% bullish (-17pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.37 (26% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +52bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.41 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 10
PDS computed: 14
**FALSIFICATION TRIGGERED**: 3 commodity signals oppose Silk direction

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
ZW=F [alert] agriculture $661.00 +2.51σ 252d LONG 0.38 weakening
KC=F [alert] softs $272.50 -2.06σ 60d SHORT 0.49 weakening
ALB [watch] metals $169.90 -1.85σ 30d SHORT 0.46 weakening
PDBC [watch] broad $18.31 +1.85σ 252d LONG 0.50 —
NG=F [watch] energy $3.04 +1.70σ 30d LONG 0.38 weakening
URA [watch] energy $48.86 -1.69σ 30d SHORT 0.39 weakening
HG=F [watch] * metals $6.34 +1.65σ 252d LONG 0.58 weakening
CL=F [watch] energy $98.94 +1.62σ 252d LONG 0.52 weakening
ZS=F [watch] agriculture $1,199.25 +1.55σ 252d LONG 0.46 weakening
ZC=F [watch] agriculture $465.75 +1.52σ 252d LONG 0.46 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Wheat (ZW=F): ALERT +2.51σ → long (59%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.38), currency_z(-0.9), silk_ratio(0.63))
50%
PRIMARY
Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.06σ → short (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.49), currency_z(-1.2), silk_ratio(0.63))
50%
SECONDARY
Lithium (Albemarle proxy) (ALB): WATCH -1.85σ → short (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.63))
50%
SECONDARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): WATCH +1.85σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.50), silk_ratio(0.63))
50%
SECONDARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): WATCH +1.70σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.38), currency_z(-1.8), silk_ratio(0.63))
50%
SECONDARY
Uranium ETF (URA): WATCH -1.69σ → short (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-1.8), silk_ratio(0.63))
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.65σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.58), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.63))
50%
SECONDARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH +1.62σ → long (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.52), currency_z(-1.8), silk_ratio(0.63))
50%
SECONDARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): WATCH +1.55σ → long (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-0.9), silk_ratio(0.63))
50%
SECONDARY
Corn (ZC=F): WATCH +1.52σ → long (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-0.9), silk_ratio(0.63))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
ZW=F 0.382 0.58 0.52 0.05 composite tense
KC=F 0.488 0.82 0.39 0.26 composite consonant
ALB 0.462 0.72 0.63 0.04 atomic dissonant
PDBC 0.503 0.67 0.79 0.05 composite tense
NG=F 0.384 0.63 0.47 0.06 composite dissonant
URA 0.391 0.65 0.50 0.02 atomic consonant
HG=F 0.578 0.77 0.90 0.06 composite dissonant
CL=F 0.522 0.79 0.73 0.05 composite tense
ZS=F 0.459 0.66 0.67 0.05 composite tense
ZC=F 0.460 0.71 0.60 0.08 composite dissonant
GC=F 0.436 0.69 0.57 0.05 composite tense
SI=F 0.515 0.87 0.61 0.06 composite tense
SB=F 0.565 0.83 0.79 0.08 composite tense
REMX 0.531 0.81 0.74 0.04 composite tense

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (92d):19/40, 48%, +17.7%
Recent (7d):0/1, 0%, -2.4%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.

> LJ3 FALSIFICATION: Commodity Z-scores diverge from Silk direction. New recommendations paused pending inquiry.