The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-05-24 · local

Situation

Metals
→
Lithium -1.85σ/30d declining; Copper +1.63σ/252d rising. Mixed signals, weak USD
Energies
↘
Uranium -1.69σ/30d under pressure; Crude elevated at $96.60; sector soft near-te
Ags
↗
Wheat alert at +2.11σ/252d breakout driving sector; Soybeans firm at $1196.50
Softs
↘
Coffee -2.06σ/60d alert-level selloff leads sector lower; Sugar subdued
AUD
↘
AUD z30=-0.66 mild weakness; commodity headwinds but not extreme
CAD
↘
CAD z30=-1.79 notable weakness vs USD; oil strength not translating
NZD
→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate
BRL
↘
BRL z30=-1.16 weakening; broad commodity-currency softness theme

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 67% bullish (-13pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.56 (33% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +52bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.47 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 6
PDS computed: 14
**FALSIFICATION TRIGGERED**: 3 commodity signals oppose Silk direction

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
ZW=F [alert] agriculture $646.25 +2.11σ 252d LONG 0.50 weakening
KC=F [alert] * softs $272.50 -2.06σ 60d SHORT 0.49 weakening
ALB [watch] metals $169.90 -1.85σ 30d SHORT 0.42 weakening
PDBC [watch] broad $18.31 +1.84σ 252d LONG 0.53 —
URA [watch] energy $48.86 -1.69σ 30d SHORT 0.41 weakening
HG=F [watch] metals $6.34 +1.63σ 252d LONG 0.37 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Wheat (ZW=F): ALERT +2.11σ → long (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.50), currency_z(-0.9), silk_ratio(0.67))
50%
PRIMARY
Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.06σ → short (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.49), currency_z(-1.2), silk_ratio(0.67))
50%
SECONDARY
Lithium (Albemarle proxy) (ALB): WATCH -1.85σ → short (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.42), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.67))
50%
SECONDARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): WATCH +1.84σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.53), silk_ratio(0.67))
50%
SECONDARY
Uranium ETF (URA): WATCH -1.69σ → short (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.41), currency_z(-1.8), silk_ratio(0.67))
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.63σ → long (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.37), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.67))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
ZW=F 0.503 0.72 0.71 0.08 composite tense
KC=F 0.488 0.82 0.39 0.26 composite consonant
ALB 0.416 0.74 0.46 0.05 composite consonant
PDBC 0.531 0.82 0.76 0.02 composite dissonant
URA 0.405 0.75 0.43 0.04 composite consonant
HG=F 0.368 0.62 0.45 0.04 composite consonant
GC=F 0.394 0.56 0.59 0.04 composite tense
SI=F 0.388 0.65 0.47 0.04 composite consonant
CL=F 0.596 0.81 0.92 0.06 composite tense
NG=F 0.420 0.65 0.54 0.07 composite dissonant
ZS=F 0.555 0.89 0.75 0.02 composite dissonant
ZC=F 0.398 0.75 0.42 0.03 composite tense
SB=F 0.520 0.78 0.73 0.05 composite tense
REMX 0.417 0.73 0.46 0.05 composite dissonant

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (93d):19/40, 48%, +17.7%
Recent (7d):0/1, 0%, -2.4%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.

> LJ3 FALSIFICATION: Commodity Z-scores diverge from Silk direction. New recommendations paused pending inquiry.