The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-05-29 · local

Situation

Metals
↗
Copper leads sector with +1.70σ breakout, signaling upward momentum.
Energies
↗
Natural Gas triggers alert at +2.41σ, outweighing WTI drop (-1.71σ).
Ags
→
No breakouts detected across grains; sector momentum remains neutral.
Softs
↘
Coffee leads sector lower hitting a -1.89σ watch level.
AUD
↘
Slight weakening trend at -0.31σ against the USD.
CAD
↘
Strong weakening momentum at -1.57σ against the USD.
NZD
→
No data available; trend remains neutral.
BRL
↘
Notable downward pressure with -1.52σ, signaling currency weakness.

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 86% bullish (+23pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.86 (28% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +52bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.48 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 5
PDS computed: 14
**FALSIFICATION TRIGGERED**: 2 commodity signals oppose Silk direction

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
NG=F [alert] * energy $3.29 +2.41σ 30d LONG 0.37 weakening
KC=F [watch] softs $272.05 -1.89σ 60d SHORT 0.59 weakening
CL=F [watch] * energy $88.14 -1.71σ 30d SHORT 0.41 weakening
HG=F [watch] metals $6.41 +1.70σ 252d LONG 0.57 weakening
PDBC [watch] broad $17.91 +1.60σ 252d LONG 0.51 —

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): ALERT +2.41σ → long (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.37), currency_z(-1.6), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
SECONDARY
Coffee (KC=F): WATCH -1.89σ → short (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.59), currency_z(-1.5), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
SECONDARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH -1.71σ → short (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.41), currency_z(-1.6), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.70σ → long (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.57), currency_z(-0.3), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%
SECONDARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): WATCH +1.60σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.51), silk_ratio(0.86))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
NG=F 0.373 0.65 0.40 0.07 atomic tense
KC=F 0.593 0.78 0.78 0.22 atomic tense
CL=F 0.410 0.70 0.47 0.07 composite tense
HG=F 0.575 0.83 0.85 0.05 composite consonant
PDBC 0.514 0.78 0.71 0.06 composite dissonant
GC=F 0.437 0.54 0.76 0.02 composite tense
SI=F 0.478 0.62 0.73 0.08 composite tense
ZS=F 0.371 0.65 0.41 0.06 composite consonant
ZC=F 0.401 0.72 0.41 0.06 composite tense
ZW=F 0.381 0.64 0.46 0.04 atomic tense
SB=F 0.464 0.62 0.73 0.05 composite tense
ALB 0.467 0.56 0.82 0.02 composite tense
REMX 0.448 0.53 0.78 0.03 composite consonant
URA 0.309 0.44 0.45 0.04 composite tense

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (98d):19/42, 45%, +13.7%
Recent (7d):0/2, 0%, -4.0%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.

> LJ3 FALSIFICATION: Commodity Z-scores diverge from Silk direction. New recommendations paused pending inquiry.