The Silk - Commodity Forecast

Situation

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 50% bullish (-5pp weekly)

Sigma intensity: 1.50 (25% alert)

Yield curve: normal at +52bp

Geopolitical risk: 0.32 (de)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts

Breakouts: 4

PDS computed: 14

Signal

Asset	Sector	Price	Z-Score	Window	Trade	PDS	Currency
NG=F [alert]	energy	$3.29	+2.41σ	30d	LONG	0.36	weakening
KC=F [alert]	softs	$265.90	-2.10σ	60d	SHORT	0.47	weakening
CL=F [watch]	energy	$88.14	-1.71σ	30d	SHORT	0.53	weakening
HG=F [watch]	metals	$6.41	+1.70σ	252d	LONG	0.44	strengthening

Opportunity

PRIMARY

Natural Gas (NG=F): ALERT +2.41σ → long (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.36), currency_z(-1.2))

50%

PRIMARY

Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.10σ → short (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.47), currency_z(-1.5))

50%

SECONDARY

Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH -1.71σ → short (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.53), currency_z(-1.2))

50%

SECONDARY

Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.70σ → long (52%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.44))

50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

Asset	PDS	Stability	Coherence	Coupling	Mode	Consonance
NG=F	0.361	0.67	0.36	0.06	composite	dissonant
KC=F	0.471	0.77	0.61	0.03	composite	dissonant
CL=F	0.531	0.78	0.74	0.07	composite	tense
HG=F	0.437	0.74	0.51	0.07	composite	consonant
GC=F	0.451	0.56	0.75	0.04	composite	consonant
SI=F	0.488	0.62	0.80	0.04	composite	tense
ZS=F	0.440	0.65	0.63	0.04	composite	tense
ZC=F	0.383	0.65	0.43	0.07	composite	tense
ZW=F	0.407	0.67	0.47	0.08	composite	tense
SB=F	0.420	0.55	0.65	0.06	composite	dissonant
PDBC	0.493	0.75	0.69	0.04	composite	tense
ALB	0.427	0.61	0.66	0.01	atomic	tense
REMX	0.415	0.58	0.64	0.03	composite	tense
URA	0.342	0.41	0.58	0.04	composite	tense

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%

In Sample (99d):19/42, 45%, +13.7%

Recent (7d):0/1, 0%, -2.6%

Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.