The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-06-02 · local

Situation

Metals
↗
Copper leads metals higher with +1.69σ breakout; sector on watch.
Energies
↗
Natural Gas triggers alert with +2.26σ surge; energy trending up.
Ags
↘
Corn drags sector lower with -1.94σ drop; agriculture on watch.
Softs
↘
Coffee plunges to alert level at -2.38σ; softs face heavy selling.
AUD
→
AUD remains flat with negligible +0.05σ move; trend is neutral.
CAD
↘
CAD weakens significantly with -1.99σ drop against USD.
NZD
→
No data available; NZD direction remains neutral.
BRL
↘
BRL shows moderate weakness with -0.81σ decline.

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 47% bullish (-20pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.40 (27% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +48bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.52 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 5
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
KC=F [alert] softs $260.00 -2.38σ 60d SHORT 0.41 weakening
NG=F [alert] * energy $3.34 +2.26σ 60d LONG 0.36 weakening
ZC=F [watch] agriculture $446.50 -1.94σ 30d SHORT 0.41 strengthening
HG=F [watch] metals $6.43 +1.69σ 252d LONG 0.33 strengthening
PDBC [watch] * broad $17.87 +1.51σ 252d LONG 0.49 —

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.38σ → short (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.41), currency_z(-0.8))
50%
PRIMARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): ALERT +2.26σ → long (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.36), currency_z(-2.0))
50%
SECONDARY
Corn (ZC=F): WATCH -1.94σ → short (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.41), currency_z(1.8))
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.69σ → long (51%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.33))
50%
SECONDARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): WATCH +1.51σ → long (52%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.49))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
KC=F 0.411 0.72 0.43 0.08 composite tense
NG=F 0.355 0.67 0.35 0.05 composite tense
ZC=F 0.412 0.71 0.44 0.09 composite tense
HG=F 0.332 0.57 0.38 0.05 composite consonant
PDBC 0.490 0.71 0.73 0.04 composite tense
GC=F 0.493 0.72 0.71 0.05 composite consonant
SI=F 0.411 0.61 0.57 0.05 composite consonant
CL=F 0.538 0.74 0.83 0.04 atomic dissonant
ZS=F 0.372 0.58 0.47 0.06 composite tense
ZW=F 0.364 0.61 0.42 0.06 composite tense
SB=F 0.491 0.58 0.84 0.05 composite consonant
ALB 0.439 0.58 0.68 0.06 composite consonant
REMX 0.444 0.59 0.68 0.06 composite dissonant
URA 0.433 0.61 0.65 0.04 composite tense

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (102d):19/42, 45%, +13.7%
Recent (7d):0/1, 0%, -2.6%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.