The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-06-04 · local

Situation

Metals
↗
Copper leads sector higher with +1.74σ breakout on watch.
Energies
↗
Natural Gas pushes upward with +1.71σ breakout on watch.
Ags
↘
Corn plunges -2.72σ triggering alerts amid broad sector weakness.
Softs
↘
Coffee drops sharply at -2.38σ triggering alerts.
AUD
↘
Slight weakening trend with z-score at -0.12.
CAD
↘
Significant weakness against USD with -2.11σ drop.
NZD
→
No data available; trend remains neutral.
BRL
↗
Strengthening momentum with +0.45σ against USD.

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 45% bullish (-5pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 2.05 (55% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +48bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.37 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 7
PDS computed: 14
**FALSIFICATION TRIGGERED**: 3 commodity signals oppose Silk direction

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
ZC=F [alert] agriculture $431.00 -2.72σ 60d SHORT 0.40 strengthening
ZS=F [alert] * agriculture $1,155.00 -2.46σ 30d SHORT 0.43 strengthening
KC=F [alert] softs $260.00 -2.38σ 60d SHORT 0.43 weakening
ZW=F [alert] * agriculture $586.75 -2.04σ 30d SHORT 0.35 strengthening
HG=F [watch] * metals $6.49 +1.74σ 252d LONG 0.37 weakening
NG=F [watch] energy $3.24 +1.71σ 60d LONG 0.39 weakening
PDBC [watch] broad $17.87 +1.51σ 252d LONG 0.42 —

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Corn (ZC=F): ALERT -2.72σ → short (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.40), currency_z(0.4))
50%
PRIMARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): ALERT -2.46σ → short (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), currency_z(0.4))
50%
PRIMARY
Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.38σ → short (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), currency_z(-0.4))
50%
PRIMARY
Wheat (ZW=F): ALERT -2.04σ → short (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.35), currency_z(0.4))
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.74σ → long (51%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.37))
50%
SECONDARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): WATCH +1.71σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-2.1))
50%
SECONDARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): WATCH +1.51σ → long (52%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.42))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
ZC=F 0.396 0.77 0.35 0.07 composite tense
ZS=F 0.431 0.62 0.61 0.06 atomic dissonant
KC=F 0.426 0.76 0.46 0.06 composite tense
ZW=F 0.354 0.55 0.45 0.06 composite tense
HG=F 0.372 0.60 0.46 0.06 atomic tense
NG=F 0.395 0.75 0.37 0.06 composite tense
PDBC 0.420 0.66 0.59 0.01 composite dissonant
GC=F 0.455 0.78 0.54 0.04 atomic tense
SI=F 0.471 0.76 0.60 0.05 atomic tense
CL=F 0.459 0.82 0.52 0.04 atomic tense
SB=F 0.517 0.72 0.79 0.05 atomic tense
ALB 0.450 0.52 0.78 0.05 composite tense
REMX 0.540 0.66 0.93 0.03 atomic consonant
URA 0.309 0.50 0.39 0.03 composite tense

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (104d):20/43, 47%, +15.7%
Recent (7d):1/1, 100%, +2.0%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.

> LJ3 FALSIFICATION: Commodity Z-scores diverge from Silk direction. New recommendations paused pending inquiry.