The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-06-05 · local

Situation

Metals
↗
Copper leads sector higher with +1.74σ breakout; Lithium lags.
Energies
↗
Natural Gas drives sector strength with a +1.71σ upside breakout.
Ags
↘
Severe sector breakdown led by Corn plunging to -2.72σ.
Softs
↘
Coffee dominates sector weakness, triggering alert at -2.69σ.
AUD
↘
Currency weakening against USD, tracking lower at -0.84σ.
CAD
↘
Strongest currency downside mover, dropping sharply to -1.98σ.
NZD
→
No data available; neutral positioning assumed.
BRL
↘
Currency shows notable weakness, sliding to -1.28σ.

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 41% bullish (-9pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 2.18 (36% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +48bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.48 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 7
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
ZC=F [alert] * agriculture $431.00 -2.72σ 60d SHORT 0.45 weakening
KC=F [alert] * softs $247.35 -2.69σ 60d SHORT 0.35 weakening
ZS=F [alert] agriculture $1,155.00 -2.46σ 30d SHORT 0.50 weakening
ZW=F [alert] agriculture $586.75 -2.04σ 30d SHORT 0.46 weakening
HG=F [watch] metals $6.49 +1.74σ 252d LONG 0.34 weakening
NG=F [watch] energy $3.24 +1.71σ 60d LONG 0.40 weakening
ALB [watch] * metals $165.65 -1.50σ 30d SHORT 0.44 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Corn (ZC=F): ALERT -2.72σ → short (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), currency_z(-0.4), silk_ratio(0.41))
50%
PRIMARY
Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.69σ → short (59%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.35), currency_z(-1.3), silk_ratio(0.41))
50%
PRIMARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): ALERT -2.46σ → short (59%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.50), currency_z(-0.4), silk_ratio(0.41))
50%
PRIMARY
Wheat (ZW=F): ALERT -2.04σ → short (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-0.4), silk_ratio(0.41))
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.74σ → long (53%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.34), currency_z(-0.8), silk_ratio(0.41))
50%
SECONDARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): WATCH +1.71σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.40), currency_z(-2.0), silk_ratio(0.41))
50%
SECONDARY
Lithium (Albemarle proxy) (ALB): WATCH -1.50σ → short (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.44), currency_z(-0.8), silk_ratio(0.41))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
ZC=F 0.449 0.77 0.52 0.05 composite tense
KC=F 0.355 0.62 0.40 0.04 composite consonant
ZS=F 0.498 0.68 0.75 0.06 composite dissonant
ZW=F 0.456 0.63 0.69 0.04 composite tense
HG=F 0.335 0.60 0.35 0.05 composite tense
NG=F 0.403 0.64 0.52 0.05 composite tense
ALB 0.443 0.67 0.63 0.02 composite tense
GC=F 0.491 0.80 0.65 0.03 atomic dissonant
SI=F 0.410 0.76 0.42 0.05 atomic consonant
CL=F 0.374 0.71 0.39 0.03 composite dissonant
SB=F 0.504 0.77 0.70 0.05 composite tense
PDBC 0.500 0.68 0.78 0.04 composite consonant
REMX 0.546 0.79 0.81 0.04 composite tense
URA 0.556 0.83 0.79 0.05 composite tense

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (105d):20/43, 47%, +15.7%
Recent (7d):1/1, 100%, +2.0%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.