The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-06-08 · local

Situation

Metals
↘
Gold leads broad metals decline at -2.39σ, signaling downward pressure.
Energies
↘
Uranium drops sharply at -2.13σ, offsetting mild Natural Gas gains.
Ags
↘
Critical selloffs across ags, led by Corn plunging -3.30σ.
Softs
↘
Coffee faces heavy selling pressure, dropping -2.55σ.
AUD
↘
AUD weakens significantly at -2.54σ against USD.
CAD
↘
CAD shows notable weakness, sliding -1.97σ.
NZD
→
No breakout data available; neutral positioning.
BRL
↘
BRL faces downward pressure, weakening at -1.93σ.

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 62% bullish (+16pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.38 (38% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +48bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.47 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 11
PDS computed: 14
**FALSIFICATION TRIGGERED**: 10 commodity signals oppose Silk direction

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
ZC=F [critical] agriculture $417.50 -3.30σ 60d LONG 0.45 weakening
ZS=F [critical] * agriculture $1,121.50 -3.01σ 30d LONG 0.53 weakening
KC=F [alert] softs $246.50 -2.55σ 60d SHORT 0.42 weakening
GC=F [alert] metals $4,337.10 -2.39σ 30d SHORT 0.45 weakening
REMX [alert] * metals $88.59 -2.34σ 30d SHORT 0.60 weakening
URA [alert] * energy $45.31 -2.13σ 30d SHORT 0.49 weakening
ALB [alert] metals $155.44 -2.04σ 30d SHORT 0.43 weakening
ZW=F [watch] * agriculture $580.00 -1.90σ 30d SHORT 0.43 weakening
PDBC [watch] * broad $17.46 -1.88σ 30d SHORT 0.50 —
SI=F [watch] metals $68.94 -1.80σ 30d SHORT 0.46 weakening
NG=F [watch] energy $3.23 +1.56σ 60d LONG 0.40 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Corn (ZC=F): CRITICAL -3.30σ → long (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), currency_z(-1.9), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
PRIMARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): CRITICAL -3.01σ → long (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.53), currency_z(-1.9), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
PRIMARY
Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.55σ → short (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.42), currency_z(-2.2), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
PRIMARY
Gold (GC=F): ALERT -2.39σ → short (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), currency_z(-2.5), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
PRIMARY
Rare Earths ETF (REMX): ALERT -2.34σ → short (64%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.60), currency_z(-2.5), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
PRIMARY
Uranium ETF (URA): ALERT -2.13σ → short (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.49), currency_z(-2.0), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
PRIMARY
Lithium (Albemarle proxy) (ALB): ALERT -2.04σ → short (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), currency_z(-2.5), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
SECONDARY
Wheat (ZW=F): WATCH -1.90σ → short (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), currency_z(-1.9), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
SECONDARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): WATCH -1.88σ → short (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.50), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
SECONDARY
Silver (SI=F): WATCH -1.80σ → short (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-2.5), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
SECONDARY
Natural Gas (NG=F): WATCH +1.56σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.40), currency_z(-2.0), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
ZC=F 0.445 0.68 0.60 0.06 composite dissonant
ZS=F 0.534 0.73 0.79 0.09 atomic tense
KC=F 0.419 0.78 0.42 0.05 composite consonant
GC=F 0.446 0.62 0.67 0.05 composite tense
REMX 0.599 0.94 0.81 0.04 atomic tense
URA 0.493 0.70 0.75 0.03 composite dissonant
ALB 0.434 0.82 0.44 0.05 composite tense
ZW=F 0.429 0.66 0.55 0.08 composite dissonant
PDBC 0.503 0.71 0.78 0.02 composite consonant
SI=F 0.457 0.79 0.53 0.04 composite tense
NG=F 0.398 0.67 0.47 0.06 composite tense
HG=F 0.549 0.79 0.80 0.05 composite consonant
CL=F 0.431 0.69 0.55 0.05 composite dissonant
SB=F 0.564 0.84 0.83 0.03 composite tense

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (108d):20/44, 45%, +12.8%
Recent (7d):0/1, 0%, -2.9%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.

> LJ3 FALSIFICATION: Commodity Z-scores diverge from Silk direction. New recommendations paused pending inquiry.