The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-06-09 · local

Situation

Metals
↘
REMX leads broad decline at -2.26σ; Gold and ALB also flash alerts.
Energies
↘
URA drops -1.77σ on watch level; Crude and NatGas remain neutral.
Ags
↘
Soybeans plunge -2.89σ alongside Corn (-2.83σ) triggering alerts.
Softs
↘
Coffee triggers alert at -2.43σ; Sugar remains neutral.
AUD
↘
AUD weakens sharply against USD with z30 at -2.37.
CAD
↘
CAD shows weakening trend with z30 at -1.88.
NZD
→
No breakout data available; neutral stance.
BRL
↘
BRL weakening against USD with z30 at -1.82.

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 24% bullish (-21pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.80 (48% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +48bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.42 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 9
PDS computed: 14
**FALSIFICATION TRIGGERED**: 0 commodity signals oppose Silk direction

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
ZS=F [alert] agriculture $1,115.00 -2.89σ 60d SHORT 0.53 weakening
ZC=F [alert] * agriculture $420.00 -2.83σ 60d SHORT 0.46 weakening
KC=F [alert] * softs $245.50 -2.43σ 60d SHORT 0.39 weakening
REMX [alert] metals $87.42 -2.26σ 30d SHORT 0.53 weakening
ALB [alert] * metals $149.84 -2.18σ 60d SHORT 0.39 weakening
GC=F [alert] metals $4,343.30 -2.08σ 30d SHORT 0.39 weakening
SI=F [watch] metals $67.93 -1.91σ 30d SHORT 0.39 weakening
URA [watch] energy $45.92 -1.77σ 30d SHORT 0.43 weakening
ZW=F [watch] agriculture $583.75 -1.61σ 30d SHORT 0.39 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): ALERT -2.89σ → short (64%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.53), currency_z(-1.8), silk_ratio(0.24))
50%
PRIMARY
Corn (ZC=F): ALERT -2.83σ → short (63%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-1.8), silk_ratio(0.24))
50%
PRIMARY
Coffee (KC=F): ALERT -2.43σ → short (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-2.2), silk_ratio(0.24))
50%
PRIMARY
Rare Earths ETF (REMX): ALERT -2.26σ → short (64%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.53), currency_z(-2.4), silk_ratio(0.24))
50%
PRIMARY
Lithium (Albemarle proxy) (ALB): ALERT -2.18σ → short (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-2.4), silk_ratio(0.24))
50%
PRIMARY
Gold (GC=F): ALERT -2.08σ → short (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-2.4), silk_ratio(0.24))
50%
SECONDARY
Silver (SI=F): WATCH -1.91σ → short (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-2.4), silk_ratio(0.24))
50%
SECONDARY
Uranium ETF (URA): WATCH -1.77σ → short (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), currency_z(-1.9), silk_ratio(0.24))
50%
SECONDARY
Wheat (ZW=F): WATCH -1.61σ → short (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-1.8), silk_ratio(0.24))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
ZS=F 0.532 0.74 0.81 0.04 composite consonant
ZC=F 0.457 0.74 0.59 0.05 composite tense
KC=F 0.391 0.72 0.40 0.05 composite tense
REMX 0.526 0.80 0.74 0.04 composite tense
ALB 0.394 0.71 0.42 0.05 atomic dissonant
GC=F 0.390 0.52 0.60 0.04 composite tense
SI=F 0.392 0.68 0.43 0.06 composite tense
URA 0.428 0.78 0.46 0.05 composite tense
ZW=F 0.387 0.62 0.49 0.05 composite dissonant
HG=F 0.397 0.68 0.47 0.05 composite tense
CL=F 0.461 0.81 0.55 0.03 composite consonant
NG=F 0.494 0.66 0.76 0.07 composite tense
SB=F 0.482 0.83 0.56 0.05 atomic tense
PDBC 0.501 0.65 0.80 0.05 composite dissonant

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (109d):20/44, 45%, +14.2%
Recent (7d):0/1, 0%, -1.5%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.

> LJ3 FALSIFICATION: Commodity Z-scores diverge from Silk direction. New recommendations paused pending inquiry.