The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-06-12 · local

Situation

Metals
↘
Gold -2.99σ, Silver -2.27σ both at alert; broad weakness amid currency decline
Energies
↘
Uranium -1.63σ watch-level pullback; oil & gas lack breakout signals
Ags
↘
Corn -2.78σ, Soybeans -2.40σ both alert-level selloffs; sector under pressure
Softs
↘
Sugar -1.79σ/30d, Coffee -1.74σ/252d both watch-level; soft downtrend
AUD
↘
z30=-1.58 weakening; reflects broad commodity sector pressure
CAD
↘
z30=-1.70 weakening; leading commodity FX decline on energy softness
NZD
→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate
BRL
↘
z30=-1.01 mild weakening; softs & ags drag but less severe

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 62% bullish (+26pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.50 (50% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +48bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.47 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 8
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
GC=F [alert] metals $4,090.30 -2.99σ 60d SHORT 0.49 weakening
ZC=F [alert] agriculture $411.75 -2.78σ 60d SHORT 0.53 weakening
ZS=F [alert] * agriculture $1,115.00 -2.40σ 60d SHORT 0.35 weakening
SI=F [alert] metals $63.88 -2.27σ 60d SHORT 0.45 weakening
PDBC [watch] * broad $17.24 -1.84σ 30d SHORT 0.51 —
SB=F [watch] * softs $13.79 -1.79σ 30d SHORT 0.43 weakening
KC=F [watch] softs $253.95 -1.74σ 252d SHORT 0.46 weakening
URA [watch] * energy $44.83 -1.63σ 60d SHORT 0.46 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Gold (GC=F): ALERT -2.99σ → short (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.49), currency_z(-1.6), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
PRIMARY
Corn (ZC=F): ALERT -2.78σ → short (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.53), currency_z(-1.0), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
PRIMARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): ALERT -2.40σ → short (59%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.35), currency_z(-1.0), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
PRIMARY
Silver (SI=F): ALERT -2.27σ → short (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), currency_z(-1.6), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
SECONDARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): WATCH -1.84σ → short (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.51), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
SECONDARY
Sugar (SB=F): WATCH -1.79σ → short (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.43), currency_z(-0.6), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
SECONDARY
Coffee (KC=F): WATCH -1.74σ → short (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-0.6), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%
SECONDARY
Uranium ETF (URA): WATCH -1.63σ → short (57%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-1.7), silk_ratio(0.62))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
GC=F 0.494 0.64 0.81 0.04 composite —
ZC=F 0.527 0.78 0.74 0.05 composite —
ZS=F 0.352 0.57 0.41 0.07 composite —
SI=F 0.453 0.69 0.64 0.03 composite —
PDBC 0.510 0.71 0.76 0.06 composite —
SB=F 0.429 0.61 0.62 0.06 composite —
KC=F 0.460 0.87 0.47 0.04 composite —
URA 0.461 0.57 0.77 0.05 composite —
HG=F 0.560 0.90 0.74 0.05 atomic —
CL=F 0.509 0.85 0.63 0.05 atomic —
NG=F 0.430 0.63 0.63 0.03 composite —
ZW=F 0.446 0.65 0.63 0.06 atomic —
ALB 0.455 0.59 0.70 0.07 composite —
REMX 0.492 0.69 0.75 0.03 composite —

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2645d):717/1467, 49%, +419.6%
In Sample (112d):20/44, 45%, +14.2%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.