The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-06-15 · local

Situation

Metals
↘
Gold -2.15σ alert, Copper +1.61σ; mixed metals signals
Energies
↘
WTI crude -1.74σ watch, leading energy lower
Ags
↘
Corn -2.52σ, Soybeans -2.32σ; broad ag breakdown
Softs
↘
Sugar -1.81σ, Coffee -1.63σ; softs drifting lower
AUD
↘
AUD z30 -1.06, weakening vs USD
CAD
↘
CAD z30 -1.56, notably weakening vs USD
NZD
→
NZD no data available
BRL
↘
BRL z30 -0.73, mildly weakening vs USD

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 27% bullish (+3pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.27 (27% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +48bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.48 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 8
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
ZC=F [alert] agriculture $412.75 -2.52σ 60d SHORT 0.52 weakening
ZS=F [alert] agriculture $1,113.50 -2.32σ 60d SHORT 0.39 weakening
GC=F [alert] * metals $4,215.00 -2.15σ 60d SHORT 0.42 weakening
PDBC [watch] broad $17.06 -1.98σ 30d SHORT 0.51 —
SB=F [watch] softs $13.70 -1.81σ 30d SHORT 0.48 strengthening
CL=F [watch] energy $84.88 -1.74σ 60d SHORT 0.56 weakening
KC=F [watch] softs $257.20 -1.63σ 252d SHORT 0.61 strengthening
HG=F [watch] metals $6.43 +1.61σ 252d LONG 0.46 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Corn (ZC=F): ALERT -2.52σ → short (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.52), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.27))
50%
PRIMARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): ALERT -2.32σ → short (59%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-0.7), silk_ratio(0.27))
50%
PRIMARY
Gold (GC=F): ALERT -2.15σ → short (61%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.42), currency_z(-1.1), silk_ratio(0.27))
50%
SECONDARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): WATCH -1.98σ → short (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.51), silk_ratio(0.27))
50%
SECONDARY
Sugar (SB=F): WATCH -1.81σ → short (54%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.48), silk_ratio(0.27))
50%
SECONDARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH -1.74σ → short (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.56), currency_z(-1.6), silk_ratio(0.27))
50%
SECONDARY
Coffee (KC=F): WATCH -1.63σ → short (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.61), silk_ratio(0.27))
50%
SECONDARY
Copper (HG=F): WATCH +1.61σ → long (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), currency_z(-1.1), silk_ratio(0.27))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
ZC=F 0.516 0.90 0.59 0.06 composite —
ZS=F 0.390 0.68 0.45 0.05 composite —
GC=F 0.422 0.56 0.62 0.08 composite —
PDBC 0.511 0.77 0.71 0.05 composite —
SB=F 0.482 0.59 0.78 0.08 composite —
CL=F 0.557 0.84 0.73 0.09 composite —
KC=F 0.606 0.79 0.78 0.24 composite —
HG=F 0.457 0.84 0.49 0.04 composite —
SI=F 0.382 0.54 0.57 0.04 composite —
NG=F 0.389 0.65 0.44 0.08 composite —
ZW=F 0.384 0.65 0.43 0.07 composite —
ALB 0.455 0.59 0.75 0.02 composite —
REMX 0.439 0.56 0.73 0.02 composite —
URA 0.285 0.42 0.40 0.03 composite —

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2684d):730/1498, 49%, +415.7%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.