The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-06-20 · local

Situation

Metals
↘
Gold -2.07σ alert, silver -1.89σ; broad precious selloff
Energies
↘
WTI crude -2.19σ alert leads energy lower
Ags
↘
Corn -1.80σ, soy -1.68σ watch; grains soft
Softs
↘
Sugar -1.65σ/252d watch; coffee flat, mild down bias
AUD
↘
AUD z30 -1.42 weakening vs USD
CAD
↘
CAD z30 -2.16 sharp weakening, tracks crude drop
NZD
→
NZD no data; neutral
BRL
↘
BRL z30 -1.93 weakening vs USD

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 56% bullish (+33pp weekly)
Sigma intensity: 1.57 (56% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +48bp
Geopolitical risk: 0.48 (stable)

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 7
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
CL=F [alert] energy $76.54 -2.19σ 60d SHORT 0.45 weakening
PDBC [alert] * broad $16.54 -2.13σ 30d SHORT 0.46 —
GC=F [alert] metals $4,172.90 -2.07σ 60d SHORT 0.44 weakening
SI=F [watch] metals $64.91 -1.89σ 60d SHORT 0.38 weakening
ZC=F [watch] agriculture $417.50 -1.80σ 60d SHORT 0.40 weakening
ZS=F [watch] agriculture $1,122.75 -1.68σ 60d SHORT 0.39 weakening
SB=F [watch] softs $13.59 -1.65σ 252d SHORT 0.48 weakening

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): ALERT -2.19σ → short (62%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.45), currency_z(-2.2), silk_ratio(0.56))
50%
PRIMARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): ALERT -2.13σ → short (58%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.46), silk_ratio(0.56))
50%
PRIMARY
Gold (GC=F): ALERT -2.07σ → short (60%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.44), currency_z(-1.4), silk_ratio(0.56))
50%
SECONDARY
Silver (SI=F): WATCH -1.89σ → short (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.38), currency_z(-1.4), silk_ratio(0.56))
50%
SECONDARY
Corn (ZC=F): WATCH -1.80σ → short (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.40), currency_z(-1.9), silk_ratio(0.56))
50%
SECONDARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): WATCH -1.68σ → short (56%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.39), currency_z(-1.9), silk_ratio(0.56))
50%
SECONDARY
Sugar (SB=F): WATCH -1.65σ → short (55%, drivers: z_score, pds_coherence(0.48), currency_z(-1.2), silk_ratio(0.56))
50%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
CL=F 0.447 0.88 0.41 0.05 composite —
PDBC 0.465 0.68 0.66 0.05 composite —
GC=F 0.444 0.64 0.61 0.08 composite —
SI=F 0.378 0.59 0.49 0.05 composite —
ZC=F 0.402 0.70 0.44 0.06 composite —
ZS=F 0.394 0.62 0.51 0.05 composite —
SB=F 0.482 0.62 0.76 0.06 composite —
HG=F 0.412 0.62 0.57 0.05 composite —
NG=F 0.405 0.69 0.47 0.06 composite —
ZW=F 0.358 0.61 0.41 0.06 atomic —
KC=F 0.448 0.75 0.56 0.04 composite —
ALB 0.487 0.52 0.86 0.08 composite —
REMX 0.521 0.63 0.87 0.06 composite —
URA 0.461 0.55 0.79 0.04 composite —

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2684d):730/1498, 49%, +415.7%
Brier Score:0.254 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows a conjunction-bounded probability — the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. The percentage starts from a calibrated base rate (55% for ALERT signals, 50% for WATCH) and is adjusted by how many supporting drivers align: PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, and Silk spiderweb direction. When multiple correlated drivers agree, the probability is decayed (not stacked) to avoid overconfidence from signals that share a common cause.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.