The Silk - Commodity Forecast
Situation
Silk Spiderweb Context
Commodity Scan Summary
Signal
| Asset | Sector | Price | Z-Score | Window | Trade | PDS | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HG=F [alert] | metals | $6.62 | +2.32σ | 30d | LONG | 0.48 | strengthening |
| NG=F [watch] * | energy | $2.68 | -1.88σ | 60d | SHORT | 0.36 | strengthening |
Opportunity
PDS Coherence Dashboard
| Asset | PDS | Stability | Coherence | Coupling | Mode | Consonance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HG=F | 0.479 | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.03 | atomic | — |
| NG=F | 0.359 | 0.64 | 0.36 | 0.07 | atomic | — |
| GC=F | 0.451 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.03 | composite | — |
| SI=F | 0.379 | 0.60 | 0.45 | 0.09 | atomic | — |
| CL=F | 0.442 | 0.79 | 0.49 | 0.05 | atomic | — |
| ZS=F | 0.412 | 0.81 | 0.40 | 0.02 | composite | — |
| ZC=F | 0.480 | 0.76 | 0.63 | 0.05 | composite | — |
| ZW=F | 0.365 | 0.66 | 0.39 | 0.04 | atomic | — |
| KC=F | 0.385 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.27 | atomic | — |
| SB=F | 0.417 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.07 | atomic | — |
| PDBC | 0.556 | 0.81 | 0.80 | 0.05 | composite | — |
| ALB | 0.409 | 0.65 | 0.54 | 0.04 | atomic | — |
| REMX | 0.394 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.06 | atomic | — |
| URA | 0.370 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.06 | composite | — |
Performance Scorecard
About This Report
This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.
Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.
Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.
Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. This is a calibrated base rate by sigma tier (ALERT 50%, WATCH 49%, CRITICAL 51%), derived from realized cross-regime commodity outcomes (2022–2026). Earlier versions adjusted this number up when PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, or the Silk spiderweb agreed; those adjustments were removed in 2026-06 after validation showed none of them predicts outcomes out-of-sample (the currency-alignment signal in particular reversed sign across market regimes). PDS, currency, and Silk context are still shown in the tables below as qualitative signal-quality context — they just no longer move the probability. Note the realized rates are near 50% across all tiers: these commodity breakouts are close to coin-flips, and the honest base rate says so.
PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.