The Silk - Commodity Forecast

2026-09-19 · local

Situation

Metals
↘
Lithium -2.0σ alert, REMX -1.7σ; battery-metals bleed
Energies
↗
WTI +1.75σ/60d, uranium -1.76σ; crude firm, nuclear soft
Ags
↗
Corn +2.86σ/252d, soy +2.15σ; grain complex bid
Softs
→
Sugar +1.87σ up, coffee -1.68σ down; mixed, no consensus
AUD
→
AUD z30 -0.40; mild softness, no breakout
CAD
↘
CAD z30 -1.87 weakening despite firm WTI
NZD
→
NZD no data; unscoreable
BRL
↘
BRL z30 -1.97 weakening, sharp real slide

Silk Spiderweb Context

Direction ratio: 60% bullish
Sigma intensity: 1.60 (60% alert)
Yield curve: normal at +46bp

Commodity Scan Summary

Scanned: 14 contracts
Breakouts: 10
PDS computed: 14

Signal

AssetSectorPrice Z-ScoreWindowTrade PDSCurrency
ZC=F [alert] agriculture $527.50 +2.86σ 252d LONG 0.47 weakening
ZS=F [alert] * agriculture $1,303.50 +2.15σ 252d LONG 0.48 weakening
ALB [alert] metals $110.91 -2.00σ 30d SHORT 0.47 weakening
SB=F [watch] softs $17.36 +1.87σ 252d LONG 0.34 strengthening
URA [watch] * energy $41.65 -1.76σ 30d SHORT 0.39 weakening
CL=F [watch] energy $100.30 +1.75σ 60d LONG 0.43 weakening
REMX [watch] metals $69.06 -1.74σ 30d SHORT 0.46 weakening
ZW=F [watch] agriculture $714.25 +1.71σ 252d LONG 0.49 weakening
KC=F [watch] * softs $294.55 -1.68σ 30d SHORT 0.42 strengthening
PDBC [watch] broad $19.66 +1.64σ 252d LONG 0.47 —

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Corn (ZC=F): ALERT +2.86σ → long
50%
PRIMARY
Soybeans (ZS=F): ALERT +2.15σ → long
50%
PRIMARY
Lithium (Albemarle proxy) (ALB): ALERT -2.00σ → short
50%
SECONDARY
Uranium ETF (URA): WATCH -1.76σ → short
49%
SECONDARY
Crude Oil WTI (CL=F): WATCH +1.75σ → long
49%
SECONDARY
Rare Earths ETF (REMX): WATCH -1.74σ → short
49%
SECONDARY
Coffee (KC=F): WATCH -1.68σ → short
49%
SECONDARY
Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC): WATCH +1.64σ → long
49%

PDS Coherence Dashboard

AssetPDSStability CoherenceCoupling ModeConsonance
ZC=F 0.468 0.63 0.72 0.05 composite —
ZS=F 0.475 0.60 0.75 0.08 composite —
ALB 0.470 0.74 0.62 0.05 composite —
SB=F 0.337 0.59 0.37 0.05 atomic —
URA 0.391 0.71 0.38 0.09 atomic —
CL=F 0.425 0.64 0.58 0.05 composite —
REMX 0.456 0.77 0.55 0.04 atomic —
ZW=F 0.485 0.59 0.79 0.08 composite —
KC=F 0.417 0.73 0.39 0.13 composite —
PDBC 0.473 0.65 0.70 0.07 atomic —
HG=F 0.445 0.77 0.50 0.06 composite —
GC=F 0.529 0.91 0.64 0.04 composite —
SI=F 0.423 0.77 0.46 0.04 composite —
NG=F 0.346 0.56 0.46 0.02 composite —

Performance Scorecard

Backtest (2684d):730/1498, 49%, +415.7%
Recent (7d):1/1, 100%, +0.1%
Brier Score:0.250 PASS (threshold: 0.25)

About This Report

This is the downstream commodities report — a daily forecast of metals, agriculture, energies, and softs that extends the Silk Report's spiderweb analysis into commodity markets.

Silk Report linkage. The Silk Report scans equities, forex, rates, and crypto for statistical breakouts and generates a daily spiderweb summary (direction ratio, sigma intensity, yield curve, geopolitical risk). This commodity report ingests that spiderweb as its primary context, then runs an independent scan of 14 commodity contracts and 4 commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, BRL) to find where commodity prices diverge from or confirm the broader market picture.

Signal table. Each row is a commodity that triggered a statistical breakout. The PDS column is a Polyphonic Drift Score (0-1) measuring how coherent the asset's frequency-domain structure is — higher scores mean the price signal is more internally consistent.

Opportunity panel and percentages. Each opportunity shows the estimated chance that the trade is profitable over a 4-day holding period. This is a calibrated base rate by sigma tier (ALERT 50%, WATCH 49%, CRITICAL 51%), derived from realized cross-regime commodity outcomes (2022–2026). Earlier versions adjusted this number up when PDS coherence, commodity-currency direction, or the Silk spiderweb agreed; those adjustments were removed in 2026-06 after validation showed none of them predicts outcomes out-of-sample (the currency-alignment signal in particular reversed sign across market regimes). PDS, currency, and Silk context are still shown in the tables below as qualitative signal-quality context — they just no longer move the probability. Note the realized rates are near 50% across all tiers: these commodity breakouts are close to coin-flips, and the honest base rate says so.

PDS Coherence Dashboard. The bottom panel decomposes the PDS score into its three components: amplitude stability (how steady the signal's strength is), phase coherence (how aligned its frequency cycles are), and coupling (how strongly the voices interact). The Mode column shows whether the score is driven by one dominant frequency (atomic) or a blend of several (composite). Consonance describes whether the frequency voices are harmonically related (consonant), competing (tense), or breaking apart (dissonant). Use this panel for deeper signal-quality analysis beyond the headline PDS number in the signal table.