Situation NEUTRAL Stablecoins shed $390M as USDC leads outflows (-$519M); no breakouts detected amid risk-off regimeRisk-off: net stablecoin outflow of $390M signals capital retreating from crypto
USDT
↗
+$138.5M inflow (+0.07%); sole major gainer today
USDC
↘
-$518.8M outflow (-0.67%); dominant drain on liquidity
USDS
→
No meaningful change; flat supply
DAI
↘
-$14.4M outflow (-0.31%); modest contraction
USD1
↗
+$4.4M inflow (+0.10%); slight growth
Stablecoin Flows Regime: **risk-off**
Net 24h supply change: $-390.2M
BTC dominance: 58.3%
Silk Spiderweb Context Direction ratio: 95% bullish
Crypto Scan Summary Scanned: 8 symbols
Breakouts: 0
Fetch failures: SOL-USD, AVAX-USD, XRP-USD, LINK-USD, DOT-USD, ADA-USD
About This Report This is the daily crypto report — a forecast of major cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, XRP, LINK, DOT, ADA) that mirrors the Silk and commodity reports' shape with crypto-specific data layers.
**Data sources.** Price OHLCV is sourced via the [DataLoaders](https://github.com/hcarsten/DataLoaders) crypto loader (Yahoo primary, Versol fallback). Stablecoin supply changes come from [DefiLlama](https://stablecoins.llama.fi/). BTC dominance is from CoinGecko's free `/global` endpoint. The Silk spiderweb direction ratio is ingested from today's Silk newspaper.
**Signal table.** Each row is a crypto symbol whose price triggered a statistical breakout against its rolling Z-score. The Trade column applies the CRITICAL reversal rule (>3σ moves trade opposite direction; ALERT/WATCH continue with the breakout direction).
**Opportunity panel.** **Primary** signals are direct breakouts. **Secondary** signals are sector ripples — coins in the same sector as a primary breakout get a probability haircut (0.95×) and surface so the trader can see the full coupling. There is **no tertiary cascade** for crypto — the market is too tightly coupled and the inferential chain too lossy to add value.
**Probability and drivers.** Each signal's probability starts from a base (55% for ALERT/CRITICAL, 50% for WATCH). Aligned drivers — stablecoin flow direction, Silk newspaper alignment — add small bumps via conjunction decay. Adverse drivers are filtered, not subtracted: when an aligned driver isn't available the signal stands on its z-score alone. The Drivers column shows which evidence is contributing.
**Trading scope.** Crypto signals persist to `breakouts.csv` tagged `silk_crypto`. Live execution via Coinbase is currently deferred — the unified order executor logs crypto signals as visible-but-not-executed until a `coinbase_client.py` is implemented.
