# The Silk - Crypto Forecast - 2026-05-12

**Generated from**: local

---

## 1. Situation

<!-- BANNER_DATA: {"headline": "Stablecoins shed $390M as USDC leads outflows (-$519M); no breakouts detected amid risk-off regime", "regime_note": "Risk-off: net stablecoin outflow of $390M signals capital retreating from crypto", "per_stablecoin": {"USDT": {"summary": "+$138.5M inflow (+0.07%); sole major gainer today", "direction": "up"}, "USDC": {"summary": "-$518.8M outflow (-0.67%); dominant drain on liquidity", "direction": "down"}, "USDS": {"summary": "No meaningful change; flat supply", "direction": "neutral"}, "DAI": {"summary": "-$14.4M outflow (-0.31%); modest contraction", "direction": "down"}, "USD1": {"summary": "+$4.4M inflow (+0.10%); slight growth", "direction": "up"}}} -->

### Stablecoin Flows

- Regime: **risk-off**
- Net 24h supply change: $-390.2M
- BTC dominance: 58.3%

### Silk Spiderweb Context

- Direction ratio: 95% bullish

### Crypto Scan Summary

- Scanned: 8 symbols
- Breakouts: 0
- Fetch failures: SOL-USD, AVAX-USD, XRP-USD, LINK-USD, DOT-USD, ADA-USD

---

## 2. Signal

No crypto breakouts detected.


---

## 3. Opportunity

No actionable signals.


---

## 4. Probability Drivers

No signals to enumerate.


---

**Sources**: DataLoaders (crypto OHLCV), DefiLlama (stablecoin flows), CoinGecko (BTC dominance), Silk Report

**Data notes**: SOL-USD unavailable — fetcher failed; using default; AVAX-USD unavailable — fetcher failed; using default; XRP-USD unavailable — fetcher failed; using default; LINK-USD unavailable — fetcher failed; using default; DOT-USD unavailable — fetcher failed; using default; ADA-USD unavailable — fetcher failed; using default


---

## About This Report

This is the daily crypto report — a forecast of major cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, XRP, LINK, DOT, ADA) that mirrors the Silk and commodity reports' shape with crypto-specific data layers.

**Data sources.** Price OHLCV is sourced via the [DataLoaders](https://github.com/hcarsten/DataLoaders) crypto loader (Yahoo primary, Versol fallback). Stablecoin supply changes come from [DefiLlama](https://stablecoins.llama.fi/). BTC dominance is from CoinGecko's free `/global` endpoint. The Silk spiderweb direction ratio is ingested from today's Silk newspaper.

**Signal table.** Each row is a crypto symbol whose price triggered a statistical breakout against its rolling Z-score. The Trade column applies the CRITICAL reversal rule (>3σ moves trade opposite direction; ALERT/WATCH continue with the breakout direction).

**Opportunity panel.** **Primary** signals are direct breakouts. **Secondary** signals are sector ripples — coins in the same sector as a primary breakout get a probability haircut (0.95×) and surface so the trader can see the full coupling. There is **no tertiary cascade** for crypto — the market is too tightly coupled and the inferential chain too lossy to add value.

**Probability and drivers.** Each signal's probability starts from a base (55% for ALERT/CRITICAL, 50% for WATCH). Aligned drivers — stablecoin flow direction, Silk newspaper alignment — add small bumps via conjunction decay. Adverse drivers are filtered, not subtracted: when an aligned driver isn't available the signal stands on its z-score alone. The Drivers column shows which evidence is contributing.

**Trading scope.** Crypto signals persist to `breakouts.csv` tagged `silk_crypto`. Live execution via Coinbase is currently deferred — the unified order executor logs crypto signals as visible-but-not-executed until a `coinbase_client.py` is implemented.