# The Silk - Crypto Forecast - 2026-05-26

**Generated from**: local

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## 1. Situation

<!-- BANNER_DATA: {"headline": "Stablecoins shed $221.5M as USDC leads outflows (-$204M); no breakouts detected \u2014 risk_off regime holds", "regime_note": "Risk-off: net stablecoin outflow of $221.5M signals capital retreating from crypto", "per_stablecoin": {"USDT": {"summary": "Flat at $189.4B; negligible +$0.5M inflow", "direction": "neutral"}, "USDC": {"summary": "Dominant outflow: -$204.2M (-0.27%) from $76.3B", "direction": "down"}, "USDS": {"summary": "No meaningful activity; supply near zero", "direction": "neutral"}, "DAI": {"summary": "Slight mint: +$2.2M (+0.05%) on $4.59B base", "direction": "neutral"}, "USD1": {"summary": "Notable redemption: -$20M (-0.42%) from $4.78B", "direction": "down"}}} -->

### Stablecoin Flows

- Regime: **risk-off**
- Net 24h supply change: $-221.5M
- BTC dominance: 58.1%

### Silk Spiderweb Context

- Direction ratio: 62% bullish

### Crypto Scan Summary

- Scanned: 8 symbols
- Breakouts: 0

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## 2. Signal

No crypto breakouts detected.


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## 3. Opportunity

No actionable signals.


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## 4. Probability Drivers

No signals to enumerate.


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**Sources**: DataLoaders (crypto OHLCV), DefiLlama (stablecoin flows), CoinGecko (BTC dominance), Silk Report


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## About This Report

This is the daily crypto report — a forecast of major cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, XRP, LINK, DOT, ADA) that mirrors the Silk and commodity reports' shape with crypto-specific data layers.

**Data sources.** Price OHLCV is sourced via the [DataLoaders](https://github.com/hcarsten/DataLoaders) crypto loader (Yahoo primary, Versol fallback). Stablecoin supply changes come from [DefiLlama](https://stablecoins.llama.fi/). BTC dominance is from CoinGecko's free `/global` endpoint. The Silk spiderweb direction ratio is ingested from today's Silk newspaper.

**Signal table.** Each row is a crypto symbol whose price triggered a statistical breakout against its rolling Z-score. The Trade column applies the CRITICAL reversal rule (>3σ moves trade opposite direction; ALERT/WATCH continue with the breakout direction).

**Opportunity panel.** **Primary** signals are direct breakouts. **Secondary** signals are sector ripples — coins in the same sector as a primary breakout get a probability haircut (0.95×) and surface so the trader can see the full coupling. There is **no tertiary cascade** for crypto — the market is too tightly coupled and the inferential chain too lossy to add value.

**Probability and drivers.** Each signal's probability starts from a base (55% for ALERT/CRITICAL, 50% for WATCH). Aligned drivers — stablecoin flow direction, Silk newspaper alignment — add small bumps via conjunction decay. Adverse drivers are filtered, not subtracted: when an aligned driver isn't available the signal stands on its z-score alone. The Drivers column shows which evidence is contributing.

**Trading scope.** Crypto signals persist to `breakouts.csv` tagged `silk_crypto`. Live execution via Coinbase is currently deferred — the unified order executor logs crypto signals as visible-but-not-executed until a `coinbase_client.py` is implemented.