The Silk - Crypto Forecast
2026-06-13 · local
Situation
Stablecoin Flows
Regime: **risk-off**
Net 24h supply change: $-381.2M
BTC dominance: 56.4%
Silk Spiderweb Context
Direction ratio: 56% bullish
Crypto Scan Summary
Scanned: 8 symbols
Breakouts: 8
**FALSIFICATION TRIGGERED**: 8 crypto signals oppose Silk direction
Signal
| Asset | Sector | Price | Z-Score | Window | Trade | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX-USD [alert] | smart_contract | $6.66 | -2.14σ | 60d | SHORT | 56% |
| ADA-USD [watch] * | smart_contract | $0.17 | -1.84σ | 60d | SHORT | 51% |
| ETH-USD [watch] * | smart_contract | $1,677.22 | -1.79σ | 60d | SHORT | 51% |
| XRP-USD [watch] * | payments | $1.15 | -1.77σ | 60d | SHORT | 51% |
| DOT-USD [watch] * | smart_contract | $0.99 | -1.77σ | 60d | SHORT | 51% |
| BTC-USD [watch] * | store_of_value | $63,954.16 | -1.70σ | 60d | SHORT | 51% |
| SOL-USD [watch] | smart_contract | $67.78 | -1.70σ | 60d | SHORT | 51% |
| LINK-USD [watch] | oracle | $7.99 | -1.53σ | 60d | SHORT | 51% |
Opportunity
PRIMARY
Avalanche (AVAX-USD): ALERT -2.14σ → short (56%, drivers: z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38))
50%
PRIMARY
Cardano (ADA-USD): WATCH -1.84σ → short (51%, drivers: z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38))
50%
PRIMARY
Ethereum (ETH-USD): WATCH -1.79σ → short (51%, drivers: z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38))
50%
PRIMARY
Ripple (XRP-USD): WATCH -1.77σ → short (51%, drivers: z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38))
50%
PRIMARY
Polkadot (DOT-USD): WATCH -1.77σ → short (51%, drivers: z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38))
50%
PRIMARY
Bitcoin (BTC-USD): WATCH -1.70σ → short (51%, drivers: z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38))
50%
PRIMARY
Solana (SOL-USD): WATCH -1.70σ → short (51%, drivers: z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38))
50%
PRIMARY
Chainlink (LINK-USD): WATCH -1.53σ → short (51%, drivers: z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38))
50%
Probability Drivers
| Asset | Cascade | Probability | Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX-USD | PRIMARY | 56% | z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38) |
| ADA-USD | PRIMARY | 51% | z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38) |
| ETH-USD | PRIMARY | 51% | z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38) |
| XRP-USD | PRIMARY | 51% | z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38) |
| DOT-USD | PRIMARY | 51% | z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38) |
| BTC-USD | PRIMARY | 51% | z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38) |
| SOL-USD | PRIMARY | 51% | z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38) |
| LINK-USD | PRIMARY | 51% | z_score, stablecoin_flow(+0.38) |
Performance Scorecard
Backtest (2319d):911/1631, 56%, +1233.4%
Brier Score:0.252 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)