# The Silk - Crypto Forecast - 2026-08-15

**Strategy**: BTC 20-day correlation timing rule (USDC volume vs BTC price)

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## Situation

- **Block state**: FLAT
- **20d correlation** (USDC volume vs BTC price): n/a
- **Block start**: n/a (20 trading-day hold, no rebalance)
- **Boundary today**: no
- **BTC**: n/a

**Stablecoin context** (informational): regime neutral, net 24h supply -22.4M USD.


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## Signal

The rule evaluates every 20 trading days. Long BTC when the trailing 20-day Pearson correlation of USDC volume vs BTC price is > 0, else flat. Current reading **n/a** → **FLAT**.


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## Opportunity

**FLAT** — trailing correlation ≤ 0. Capital parked in USDC; no BTC exposure until a boundary with positive correlation.


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## About This Report

This is the daily crypto report. As of 2026-08-13 the crypto strategy is the **BTC 20-day correlation timing rule** (operator decision), replacing the Z-score breakout scanner. Every 20 trading days it reads the trailing 20-day correlation of USDC trading volume against BTC price; positive correlation → hold BTC long for the full 20-day block, otherwise stay in USDC cash. BTC-only, long-only, no intra-block exits. See `docs/trading_rules.md` §3 and `docs/research/btc_20day_correlation_backtest_2026-08-13.md`.


**Sources**: DataLoaders (BTC OHLCV), Yahoo (USDC-USD volume), DefiLlama (stablecoin context).


> **Data note**: Mixed timezones detected. Pass utc=True in to_datetime or tz='UTC' in DatetimeIndex to convert to a common timezone.