The Silk - Core Forecast

2026-07-13 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Situation

Interest Rates↘65%
TNX at +1.89σ WATCH in normal curve with stable 0.38 geo risk and mixed sentiment data setting up for mean reversion
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if weak consumer sentiment persists and real-yield trajectory does not spike, keeping curve spread near current levels.
Watch
  • TNX closes below 4.40
  • 2s/10s spread widens beyond 95bp
  • MOVE index falls below 65
26% [n=27] Brier 0.313
Financial↘62%
AMD at +2.22σ ALERT and small caps at +1.8-1.9σ WATCH with contracting breadth and VIX -1.77σ setting up for near-term mean reversion
2-day forecastMomentum names like AMD likely to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if VIX rises above 17, while broad indices consolidate unless dispersion narrows sharply.
Watch
  • AMD closes below 540
  • VIX rises above 17.5
  • IWM underperforms SPX by 0.8%
41% [n=27] Brier 0.285
Commodity→58%
Crude rebounding +5% over 5d while lithium/ALB at -1.83σ and ags firm in contained geo transmission regime
2-day forecastEnergy to stabilize and oversold metals like lithium likely to mean-revert higher over next 2 sessions if no Middle East escalation and China demand signals remain neutral.
Watch
  • Crude holds above 73.50
  • Lithium rises above 128
  • Broad commodity index above 16.6
22% [n=27] Brier 0.353
Currency↘56%
EURUSD with -59 momentum trending down and USD firm on rate differentials amid stable geo risk and low EM stress
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to weaken further over next 2 sessions if US real-yield spreads hold and central bank divergence persists, with DXY testing higher.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.135
  • USDJPY rises above 163
  • USDCNY above 6.82
19% [n=27] Brier 0.334
Crypto↗54%
BTC stable near 64k with low vol, futures basis neutral and aligned with AI equity leadership in low-panic regime
2-day forecastBTC likely to consolidate with mild upside bias over next 2 sessions if equity breadth does not deteriorate and spot ETF flows stay positive.
Watch
  • BTC breaks above 65500
  • ETH/BTC dominance rises 1%
  • Perpetual funding rate stays positive
30% [n=27] Brier 0.259
Direction ratio 0.62 bullish (+10pp weekly):moderate bullish bias with contracting breadth momentum at -6
Sigma intensity 1.12 (low conviction) with 0% critical, 12% alert, 88% watch [n=2806]:mean-reversion favored on 2σ+ at 77% within 6d [n=1686]

Signal

AssetPriceZ-ScoreWindowLevelTrade
AMD $557.89 +2.22σ 252d alert LONG
IJR * $145.56 +1.94σ 252d watch LONG
^TNX * $4.57 +1.89σ 252d watch LONG
ALB * $126.05 -1.83σ 60d watch SHORT
IWM $295.99 +1.83σ 252d watch LONG
^VIX $15.03 -1.77σ 60d watch SHORT
SOXX $581.34 +1.75σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X * $1.14 -1.70σ 252d watch SHORT
TSM $434.11 +1.58σ 252d watch LONG

Opportunity

PRIMARY
AMD: cheap put protection or reduced long exposure on AI proxy
72%
PRIMARY
ALB: long ALB for 4-day reversion with tight stop
70%
PRIMARY
TNX: position for yield pullback via duration with defined risk
65%
PRIMARY
EURUSD: tactical USD long vs EUR with GMT6 pre-pricing awareness
57%
SECONDARY
Mean reversion on 2σ+ signals (AMD, TNX, ALB, VIX): near-term pause in extended momentum supporting range-bound regime
61%
SECONDARY
AI capex demand persistence: continued large-cap tech leadership in mixed-growth setup
50%

Performance Scorecard CALIBRATED since 2026-07-13

Backtest (1042d):574/1292, 44% [42%-47%], +359.7%
Recent (7d):2/7, 29% [8%-64%], -3.0%
Brier Score:0.261 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)