The Silk - Core Forecast

2026-08-10 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Situation

Interest Rates↗55%
10Y at +1.84σ and TLT -1.90σ with normal curve and commodity reflation transmitting into rates amid stable geo risk 0.38
2-day forecastLong yields likely to hold firm or test modestly higher over next 2 sessions if commodities remain elevated above 5d levels, unless NFP/CPI surprises soft.
Watch
  • 10Y yield holds above 4.60%
  • crude oil >79.00
  • MOVE index stays below 72
25% [n=55] Brier 0.318
Financial↗56%
NVDA +2.32σ alert with 71% bullish direction ratio, IWM +1.72σ and contracting breadth momentum -5
2-day forecastSelective equity gains likely to continue over next 2 sessions with AI and small caps leading if dispersion holds at 1.65 and VIX stays below 16, though reversion risk elevated at 2σ+.
Watch
  • NVDA above 220
  • Russell 2000 +0.5% relative to SPX
  • VIX remains under 16.0
29% [n=55] Brier 0.295
Commodity↗58%
Uranium/gold/copper all +6-13% over 5-30d with broad index +5.1% 30d transmitting reflation signal into other nodes
2-day forecastCommodity complex expected to stay firm or see mild extension over next 2 sessions if USD stays mixed and no supply disruption news emerges from hotspots.
Watch
  • Gold above 4370
  • Crude above 79.00
  • Copper holds above 6.55
33% [n=55] Brier 0.297
Currency↗54%
EURUSD +1.61σ and USDJPY -1.68σ with commodity currencies firm on reflation and stable central bank divergence
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to stabilize near 1.16 or edge higher over next 2 sessions if rate differentials hold and geo risk remains stable below 0.40, with USDJPY capping upside.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.158
  • USDJPY <159.50
  • No Middle East escalation headlines
24% [n=55] Brier 0.315
Crypto→53%
BTC stable near 65k with low vol, tracking AI equity momentum but no clear ETF flow or basis breakout
2-day forecastCrypto expected to remain rangebound with mild upside bias over next 2 sessions if equity leadership persists and VIX stays contained below 16.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 64000
  • ETH/BTC ratio stable
  • VIX below 16.0
29% [n=55] Brier 0.258

Signal

AssetPriceZ-ScoreWindowLevelTrade
NVDA $223.96 +2.32σ 30d alert LONG
TLT * $82.76 -1.90σ 252d watch SHORT
^TNX * $4.66 +1.84σ 252d watch LONG
IWM $301.56 +1.72σ 252d watch LONG
USDJPY=X $158.41 -1.68σ 30d watch SHORT
EURUSD=X $1.15 +1.61σ 30d watch LONG

Opportunity

PRIMARY
NVDA (AI proxy): Overweight NVDA vs broad indices for continuation
56%
PRIMARY
TLT (long bonds): Underweight duration or tactical short TLT
54%
PRIMARY
Gold/Uranium basket: Long selective commodities for reflation convexity (GMT7)
61%
SECONDARY
AI equity leadership continuation: sustains selective risk-on regime
48%
SECONDARY
Commodity reflation transmission to yields/FX: keeps financial conditions from easing too far
51%
SECONDARY
Stable geo regime with de-escalation paths (ME/Ukraine): limits contagion and vol spikes per GMT4/GMT5
63%

Performance Scorecard CALIBRATED since 2026-08-10

Backtest (1042d):574/1292, 44% [42%-47%], +359.7%
Recent (7d):0/2, 0% [0%-66%], -1.3%
Brier Score:0.261 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)