The Silk - Core Forecast

2026-08-13 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Situation

Interest Rates↗55%
TNX +1.88σ and TLT -2.27σ with normal curve and stable geo sets firm rates backdrop
2-day forecastYields likely to remain firm or edge higher over next 2 sessions if commodities hold current levels and no soft CPI surprise emerges as trigger.
Watch
  • 10Y yield holds above 4.60
  • MOVE index stays below 75
  • No dovish FOMC leaks
25% [n=60] Brier 0.323
Financial↗58%
NVDA at +2.05σ and IWM +1.89σ with 7-day BULLISH_BIAS streak sets AI/small-cap leadership continuation
2-day forecastEquities likely to extend selective gains over next 2 sessions if VIX remains below 15 and breadth does not flip negative.
Watch
  • VIX <15.0
  • NVDA holds 220
  • Russell2000 momentum >0
28% [n=60] Brier 0.296
Commodity↗57%
Gold/uranium basket at multi-week highs with broad index +6.3%30d reflects reflation signal in low geo-risk regime
2-day forecastCommodity firmness expected to persist over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 80 and no supply disruption news hits tape.
Watch
  • Gold above 4420
  • Crude above 80.50
  • Copper holds 6.50
37% [n=60] Brier 0.290
Currency→62%
EURUSD stable near 1.15 with mixed USD and low EM stress in firm-rates environment
2-day forecastCurrencies likely to trade mixed with limited range over next 2 sessions if rate differentials do not widen and risk-on holds.
Watch
  • EURUSD between 1.14-1.16
  • USDJPY below 160
  • No BOJ intervention signals
23% [n=60] Brier 0.317
Crypto→53%
BTC -2.6%30d lagging AI equities with low vol and neutral funding in selective regime
2-day forecastCrypto expected to stabilize in tight range over next 2 sessions if equity leadership continues and ETF flows do not turn negative.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 62500
  • VIX remains <15
  • Dominance index stable
27% [n=60] Brier 0.260
Direction ratio 0.83 bullish:sustained selective risk-on with AI leadership per thesis [n=1042]
Breadth momentum -5 contracting:favors dispersion and rotation into quality/tech over broad melt-up

Signal

AssetPriceZ-ScoreWindowLevelTrade
TLT $82.11 -2.27σ 252d alert SHORT
NVDA * $224.09 +2.05σ 252d alert LONG
MSFT $492.43 +1.97σ 60d watch LONG
IWM * $302.71 +1.89σ 30d watch LONG
^TNX $4.68 +1.88σ 252d watch LONG
^VIX * $14.55 -1.57σ 60d watch SHORT

Opportunity

PRIMARY
TLT: Bias toward higher yields or short TLT into rebounds
54%
PRIMARY
NVDA (AI basket): Long AI/quality on any dispersion-driven dips
59%
PRIMARY
Gold/uranium basket: Add on weakness as hedge into reflation
61%
SECONDARY
AI/quality equity leadership continuation: anchors selective risk-on regime and dispersion
50%
SECONDARY
Commodity firmness reflation signal: supports firm rates without tightening conditions
51%
SECONDARY
Mean reversion after TLT -2.27σ ALERT: if triggers would ease financial conditions counter to thesis
45%

Performance Scorecard CALIBRATED since 2026-08-13

Backtest (1042d):574/1292, 44% [42%-47%], +359.7%
Recent (7d):2/4, 50% [15%-85%], -0.5%
Brier Score:0.261 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)