The Silk - Core Forecast

2026-08-14 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Situation

Interest Rates↗54%
Normal curve with TNX +1.65σ WATCH and stable geo-risk set up for firm rates ahead of data releases
2-day forecastYields likely to edge higher if NFP exceeds 200k or if commodity strength persists over next 2 sessions; consolidation expected on soft print.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks 4.70%
  • NFP >200k
  • 2s10s widens >5bp
26% [n=61] Brier 0.319
Financial↗57%
ALERT/WATCH upside signals on SPY/NVDA/IWM in low VIX environment set up for continued AI-led selective gains
2-day forecastEquities likely to extend if breadth holds above 60% and VIX stays below 15.5 over next 2 sessions with tech/small-caps leading.
Watch
  • SPX holds >775
  • VIX <15.5
  • NVDA >220
30% [n=61] Brier 0.294
Commodity↗55%
Firm gold/uranium/ag complex with contained geo hotspots set up for reflation without broad shock
2-day forecastCommodities likely to hold or edge up if Middle East skirmishes persist without physical disruption over next 2 sessions.
Watch
  • Crude >82.50
  • Gold >4425
  • Corn holds >470
36% [n=61] Brier 0.292
Currency→60%
Mixed FX with slight USD softening amid commodity firmness and stable rate differentials
2-day forecastUSD likely to remain mixed/range-bound unless NFP shifts rate expectations sharply over next 2 sessions.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.165
  • USDJPY <158
  • DXY move <0.3%
23% [n=61] Brier 0.317
Crypto↘52%
BTC lagging AI equities at -1.7% 5d with neutral funding set up for underperformance
2-day forecastCrypto likely to test lower or stay soft if equity dispersion persists and ETF flows stay neutral over next 2 sessions.
Watch
  • BTC <61500
  • ETH/BTC ratio declines
  • Funding rate <0.01%
26% [n=61] Brier 0.261
Direction ratio 0.67 bullish with -6pp weekly change:contracting momentum favors dispersion over broad melt-up
Sigma intensity 1.33 (low conviction) with 0% critical, 33% alert, 67% watch:base rate 56% hit rate for signals [n=2712]

Signal

AssetPriceZ-ScoreWindowLevelTrade
SPY * $777.88 +2.45σ 60d alert LONG
NVDA $225.30 +2.10σ 252d alert LONG
MSFT $496.88 +1.98σ 60d watch LONG
IWM $303.50 +1.95σ 30d watch LONG
TLT * $82.59 -1.89σ 252d watch SHORT
XLE * $61.06 +1.81σ 60d watch LONG
^TNX * $4.64 +1.65σ 252d watch LONG
QQQ * $732.07 +1.58σ 252d watch LONG

Opportunity

PRIMARY
Lithium: Long lithium on any further 5d softening for selective reflation exposure
55%
PRIMARY
SPY/NVDA basket: Long selective AI/small-cap rotation; invalidates if VIX >17
58%
PRIMARY
10Y Yield / TLT: Position via steepener or short TLT; wrong if 10Y drops below 4.40 on shock
56%
SECONDARY
AI capex demand leadership: sustains equity dispersion and selective risk-on
50%
SECONDARY
Firm long yields without shock: anchors reflation while limiting broad easing
48%
SECONDARY
Contained geopolitical transmission: limits vol spike; primary to energy only
66%

Performance Scorecard CALIBRATED since 2026-08-14

Backtest (1042d):574/1292, 44% [42%-47%], +359.7%
Recent (7d):3/6, 50% [19%-81%], -3.6%
Brier Score:0.261 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)