Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets

The Markets Web

2026-09-25

How to read the Markets Web

Green dot: Bullish outlook
Red dot: Bearish outlook
Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets

Interest Rates↗Interest rates are expected to continue higher over the next 20 sessions as OLS prior and tightening bias hold despite volatility expansion.
Financial↗Financials and equities are expected to mean-revert higher over the next 20 sessions as ALERT extremes resolve with 67% probability.
Commodity↘Commodities are expected to mean-revert lower over the next 20 sessions as the critical UNG signal resolves at statistical extremes.
Currency↘The US dollar is expected to weaken over the next 20 sessions as mean reversion pulls UUP lower from its extended level.
Crypto↗20d corr +0.44 — The current LONG block is expected to persist over the next 20 sessions with positive correlation likely to hold until the next decision boundary.

Direction ratio 0.75 (+6pp weekly):BULLISH_BIAS streak of 3 days with stable breadth momentum [n=522]

Backtest (522d):416/957, 43% [40%-47%], +328.5%

Recent (7d):0/3, 0% [0%-56%], -6.6%

Brier Score:0.245 PASS (threshold: 0.25)