Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets

Where the next twenty days are leaning.

2026-09-26: Markets whisper. The web waits.

The Web of Markets

2026-09-26
How to read the Web of Markets
  • Green dot: Bullish outlook
  • Red dot: Bearish outlook
  • Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
  • Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
  • Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
  • Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
Interest RatesFinancial MSFT 2.1σ alertCommodityCurrencyCryptoRatesFinancialCommodityFXCrypto
  • Interest Rates↗Yields are likely to extend higher over the next 20 sessions as OLS prior and data support continued tightening bias.
  • Financial↗Small caps are expected to mean-revert higher from extremes while overall financials grind modestly higher over 20 sessions.
  • Commodity↘Overextended commodities like natgas are likely to mean revert lower over the next 20 sessions as base rates favor reversion.
  • Currency↘USD strength via UUP is expected to revert lower over the next 20 sessions on WATCH signal base rates.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.40 — The current LONG block is expected to persist until the next boundary as positive correlation holds without sign flip.
Direction ratio 0.67 (-8pp weekly):bearish shift in breadth with expanding dispersion at 1.71

Geopolitical Risk

Stable 42%
  • Middle East↘Iran proxy strikes on Iraqi and Red Sea targets without direct state escalation(14d outlook)
  • Eastern Europe↘Attrition phase in Ukraine with targeted energy infrastructure risks ahead of winter(21d outlook)
  • Indo-Pacific↘Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan Strait amid ongoing tech export controls(30d outlook)
  • Middle East↘OPEC+ production compliance signals amid lower global demand growth(10d outlook)

National Accounts Risk

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow
Neutral
1/3 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy) -0.45
JPY carry direction +0.19
Commodity-currency breadth -1.00
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope +0.27
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) +1.00
Balance Sheet
Risk Off
3/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y) +0.46
HY credit spread z-score -1.00
Real yields z-score -1.00
As of 2026-09-26 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework