The Web of Markets
2026-09-28
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗Higher long yields are likely to persist over the next 20 sessions as nominal growth dominates.
- Financial↗Broad equities are expected to churn modestly higher with continued narrow AI leadership and weak breadth.
- Commodity↗Commodities are likely to remain supported overall with oil and natgas firm over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗The dollar is expected to hold firm supported by yield differentials over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.19 — The current LONG block is expected to persist until the next boundary with no sign of correlation flipping negative.
Direction ratio 0.86 bullish (+26pp weekly):sustained BULLISH_BIAS streak of 1 day but contracting breadth momentum at -2
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 42%- Middle East→Iran-backed proxy clashes with Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon(14d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Stalemate in Ukraine with Russian signaling on winter energy flows(21d outlook)
- Western Pacific→Chinese naval drills and airspace incursions near Taiwan(30d outlook)
- Red Sea→Intermittent Houthi drone attacks on commercial vessels(10d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
Neutral — leaning risk-offCash Flow
Neutral
1/3 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
-0.18
JPY carry direction
+0.10
Commodity-currency breadth
-1.00
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
+0.27
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
-1.00
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
+1.00
Balance Sheet
Risk Off
3/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.46
HY credit spread z-score
-1.00
Real yields z-score
-1.00
As of 2026-09-28 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework