The Web of Markets
2026-09-29
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗Higher yields are likely to persist over the next 20 sessions as the late-cycle nominal-growth regime continues.
- Financial↗Selective resilience in tech is expected to support modest broad equity upside despite small-cap pressure over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity→Commodity complex is expected to stabilize with sticky energy prices but limited broad upside over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗USD strength is likely to continue over the next 20 sessions supported by rate differentials and selective risk resilience.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.26 — The current LONG block is expected to persist until the next 20-day boundary provided correlation stays positive.
Direction ratio 0.71 bullish, 0 weekly change:stable BULLISH_BIAS streak of 3 days
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 48%- Middle East→Sporadic Red Sea shipping incidents linked to proxy actors amid fragile truce(14d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia-EU winter gas transit talks facing procedural delays(21d outlook)
- Indo-Pacific→Routine Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan with elevated rhetoric(30d outlook)
- Persian Gulf→Incremental Iranian nuclear monitoring disputes with IAEA(18d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
Neutral — leaning risk-offCash Flow
Neutral
1/3 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
-0.09
JPY carry direction
+0.27
Commodity-currency breadth
-1.00
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
+0.28
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
-1.00
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
+0.88
Balance Sheet
Risk Off
3/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.46
HY credit spread z-score
-1.00
Real yields z-score
-1.00
As of 2026-09-29 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework