The Web of Markets
2026-09-30
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗Yields are expected to consolidate modestly higher over the next 20 sessions as late-cycle growth persists.
- Financial↗Financials and small caps are expected to mean-revert higher while AI leadership persists with weak breadth over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity→Commodities are expected to stabilize with selective energy firmness but limited broad upside over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗The dollar is expected to hold mild gains over the next 20 sessions supported by yield differentials.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.26 — The current LONG block is expected to persist until the next 20-day boundary as long as correlation stays positive.
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 42%- Middle East→Iran-backed militia strikes on Gulf shipping lanes and Israeli energy targets(12d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russian threats to disrupt remaining Ukraine transit pipelines ahead of winter(21d outlook)
- East Asia→Increased Chinese naval patrols and incidents near Taiwan and Philippines EEZ(30d outlook)
- Persian Gulf→Houthi drone attacks on Saudi and UAE oil infrastructure(10d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
Neutral — leaning risk-offCash Flow
Neutral
1/3 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
-0.01
JPY carry direction
+0.22
Commodity-currency breadth
-1.00
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
+0.27
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
-1.00
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
+0.94
Balance Sheet
Risk Off
3/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.46
HY credit spread z-score
-1.00
Real yields z-score
-1.00
As of 2026-09-30 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework