The Web of Markets
2026-10-01
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗Long-term yields are expected to grind modestly higher over the next 20 sessions as higher-for-longer regime holds.
- Financial↗Equities are likely to churn modestly higher with AI leadership intact despite pressure on small caps and financials.
- Commodity→Commodities are expected to remain range-bound with sticky energy prices but no broad breakout.
- Currency→The dollar is likely to stabilize near current levels without material further gains over 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.35 — The current LONG block is expected to persist at least until the next boundary as correlation sign stays positive.
Direction ratio 0.62 bullish, -12pp weekly shift:selective resilience with pressure on small caps/financials per thesis
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 38%- Middle East↘Iran-backed proxies intensify strikes on Gulf shipping and energy sites(12d outlook)
- Eastern Europe↘Russia-Ukraine winter energy leverage escalates with pipeline threats(21d outlook)
- Indo-Pacific↘China-Taiwan military drills expand with live-fire exercises(14d outlook)
- Red Sea↘Intermittent Houthi drone attacks on commercial vessels(7d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
Neutral — leaning risk-offCash Flow
Neutral
1/3 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
-0.34
JPY carry direction
+0.73
Commodity-currency breadth
-1.00
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
+0.27
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
-0.99
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
+1.00
Balance Sheet
Risk Off
3/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.46
HY credit spread z-score
-1.00
Real yields z-score
-1.00
As of 2026-10-01 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework