Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets

Where the next twenty days are leaning.

Days correct
Settled today · 2026-10-04
8/8 100%
Interest Rates 0/0 · Financial 0/0 · Commodity 0/0 · Currency 0/0 · Crypto 8/8 100%
Through N 8/8 100% N=8
Interest Rates — N=0 · Financial — N=0 · Commodity — N=0 · Currency — N=0 · Crypto 8/8 100% N=8
Accuracy

2026-10-04: Markets whisper. The web waits.

The Web of Markets

2026-10-04
How to read the Web of Markets
  • Green dot: Bullish outlook
  • Red dot: Bearish outlook
  • Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
  • Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
  • Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
  • Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
Interest Rates ^TNX 2.9σ alert p=58%Financial XLF 2.4σ alert p=68%CommodityCurrencyCryptoRates ↑Financial ↑Commodity →Currency ↑Crypto ↑Henry Carstens Forecast — Markets
  • Interest Rates↗Yields are expected to continue higher over the next 20 sessions as tightening expectations and OLS projection persist.
  • Financial↗Equity indices are likely to advance with narrow leadership concentrated in AI and quality growth over the next 20 sessions.
  • Commodity→Commodities are expected to stabilize with selective mean reversion in underperformers and limited upside from geo channels.
  • Currency↗The USD is likely to strengthen modestly over the next 20 sessions supported by higher real yields.
  • Crypto↗20d corr +0.00 — The current LONG block is expected to persist until the next boundary without a negative correlation flip.
Direction ratio 0.57 bullish, -35pp weekly change:shifting bearish momentum with narrowing leadership

Geopolitical Risk

Stable 45%
  • Middle East→Iran-backed proxy clashes with Israel/Hezbollah along northern border(12d outlook)
  • Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine stalemate with targeted energy infrastructure strikes(25d outlook)
  • Indo-Pacific→Chinese naval patrols and Taiwan-adjacent air incursions(30d outlook)
  • Red Sea→Houthi sporadic shipping harassment amid Yemen ceasefire talks(18d outlook)

National Accounts Risk

Risk-off (moderate)
Cash Flow
Risk Off
2/3 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy) -0.53
JPY carry direction +0.60
Commodity-currency breadth -1.00
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope +0.31
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -0.70
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) +0.97
Balance Sheet
Risk Off
3/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y) +0.34
HY credit spread z-score -1.00
Real yields z-score -0.86
As of 2026-10-04 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework