The Web of Markets
2026-10-11
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗Yields are likely to remain elevated over the next 20 sessions as tightening expectations hold.
- Financial↗Equities are expected to advance with concentrated AI momentum despite weak breadth.
- Commodity↗Commodities are likely to mean-revert after declines in corn and rare earths.
- Currency↗The dollar is expected to strengthen further versus EUR and EM FX.
- Crypto↗OLS20d corr -0.22 — The FLAT block is expected to persist with no boundary in the 20-session window.
Direction ratio 0.57 bullish -10pp weekly:narrowing leadership [n=522]
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 38%- Middle East→Iran-backed proxy clashes with Israel and Red Sea shipping incidents(21d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine attritional conflict with winter energy leverage attempts(30d outlook)
- East Asia→Chinese military drills near Taiwan amid US patrol responses(14d outlook)
- Korean Peninsula→North Korean missile tests and reported troop movements supporting Russia(10d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
Neutral — leaning risk-onCash Flow
Neutral
1/3 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.20
JPY carry direction
+0.57
Commodity-currency breadth
-1.00
Income
Risk On
3/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
+0.53
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
-0.98
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
+0.25
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.85
Real yields z-score
-0.46
As of 2026-10-11 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework