The Web of Markets
2026-10-12
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗Interest rates are expected to rise modestly over the next 20 sessions as tightening holds.
- Financial↗Financials are likely to continue modest gains over the next 20 sessions on tech momentum.
- Commodity↗Commodities should mean-revert higher over the next 20 sessions especially in grains.
- Currency→Currency markets are expected to stay range-bound with neutral USD bias over 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗OLS20d corr -0.27 — The FLAT block is expected to persist until next boundary as correlation stays negative.
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 48%- Middle East↗Iranian proxy actions in Red Sea and Lebanon met with measured Israeli responses amid Saudi mediation(14d outlook)
- Eastern Europe↗Approaching winter raises risks of targeted energy infrastructure strikes in Ukraine stalemate(21d outlook)
- East Asia↗Chinese naval patrols and drills near Taiwan amid US tech export disputes(30d outlook)
- South America↗Venezuela-Guyana border rhetoric over Essequibo amid offshore oil development(10d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
Neutral — leaning risk-onCash Flow
Neutral
1/3 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.15
JPY carry direction
+0.69
Commodity-currency breadth
-1.00
Income
Risk On
3/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
+0.53
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
-0.98
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
+0.25
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.85
Real yields z-score
-0.46
As of 2026-10-12 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework